If an impact from space debris was a factor in the loss of the space shuttle Columbia, NASA had been given ample warning. A report published in 1997 predicted a scenario that has disturbing parallels with what may have befallen the spacecraft. Written by an expert panel convened by the US National Research Council, Protecting the Space Shuttle from Meteoroids and Orbital Debris, warns that debris impacts that penetrate the leading edge or underside of a shuttle wing or fuselage might not be immediately critical or detectable.
From the New Scientist:
‘Blowtorch’ risk to shuttle
If an impact from space debris was a factor in the loss of the space shuttle Columbia, NASA had been given ample warning. A report published in 1997 predicted a scenario that has disturbing parallels with what may have befallen the spacecraft.
Written by an expert panel convened by the US National Research Council, Protecting the Space Shuttle from Meteoroids and Orbital Debris, warns that debris impacts that penetrate the leading edge or underside of a shuttle wing or fuselage might not be immediately critical or detectable.
But it goes on: “The consequent thermal heating on re-entry could have a ‘blowtorch’ effect inside the wing that causes loss of flight control or failure of the primary structure resulting in the loss of the vehicle.” In the moments before Columbia disintegrated over Texas, its left wing appeared to became abnormally hot, for as yet unexplained reasons. Also, the shuttle’s flight computer was struggling to maintain control as it entered the upper atmosphere.
NASA commissioned the NRC report because shuttle managers noticed an increase in debris damage to windshields, payload bay doors and rudder parts in some missions up to 1996.
The components most vulnerable to impacts, the NRC reported, are the reinforced carbon-composite leading edges of the wings, the rest of the wing and the wing’s “elevon”control surfaces. It cites a study by Boeing that says the wing as a whole accounts for at least 40 per cent of the risk of a catastrophic failure.