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Cure for cancer worth $50 trillion

A new study, to be published in a forthcoming issue of the Journal of Political Economy, calculates the prospective gains that could be obtained from further progress against major diseases. Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel, two University of Chicago researchers, estimate that even modest advancements against major diseases would have a significant impact – a 1 percent reduction in mortality from cancer has a value to Americans of nearly $500 billion. A cure for cancer would be worth about $50 trillion.

“We distinguish two types of health improvements – those that extend life and those that raise the quality of life,” explain the authors. “As the population grows, as incomes grow, and as the baby-boom generation approaches the primary ages of disease-related death, the social value of improvements in health will continue to rise.”

Many critiques of rising medical expenditures focus on life-extending procedures for persons near death. By breaking down net gains by age and gender, Murphy and Topel show that the value of increased longevity far exceeds rising medical expenditures overall. Gains in life expectancy over the last century were worth about $1.2 million per person to the current population, with the largest gains at birth and young age.

“An analysis of the value of health improvements is a first step toward evaluating the social returns to medical research and health-augmenting innovations,” write the authors. “Improvements in life expectancy raise willingness to pay for further health improvements by increasing the value of remaining life.”

Murphy and Topel also chart individual values resulting from the permanent reduction in mortality in several major diseases – including heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. Overall, reductions in mortality from 1970 to 2000 had an economic value to the U.S. population of $3.2 trillion per year.

From University of Chicago Press Journals



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1 thought on “Cure for cancer worth $50 trillion”

  1. Anthony Sebastian

    Why do we get cancer, by type? What lifestyle changes must we make to reduce the risk of cancer, by type?

    Greatly fewer menstrual cycles to reduce the risk of breast, ovarian and uterine cancer–fewer cycles of cellular reproduction, with consequent fewer DNA copying errors?

    Eat lots more cruciferous vegetables, and fruits and vegetables in general? The American Institute for Cancer Research writes:

    “AICR’s expert report Food, Nutrition and the Prevention of Cancer: a global perspective established the relationship between a predominantly plant-based diet and reduced cancer risk. The report suggests that eating more vegetables, fruits, whole grains and beans coupled with increased physical activity can reduce cancer risk by 30 to 40 percent.” See:

    http://www.aicr.org/site/PageServer?pagename=pub_nap_science

    and

    http://www.aicr.org/site/PageServer?pagename=pub_nap_index_21

    Hippocrates knew:

    “Nature is the cure of illness. Leave thy drugs in the chemist’s pot if thou can heal the patient with food.”
    —Hippocrates, 460-370 BC

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