Ask any scientist, any person with the gift of imagination, and he will assure you that, whatever countermeasures you think of, no matter how many millions you spend, how many pre-emptive wars you wage, you will never achieve more than 20% security.
Let’s not go into details, this is a science blog and not a political forum. But if you really do this research, you will inevitably get these results.
Man’s imagination, for good and unfortunately for bad actions, is unsurpassed. Chess champions will always beat chess software. There are simply too many parameters, there are millions of unknown factors that are created as we read this article. And every one of these factors must be anticipated and countermeasures created for them, it is simply impossible.
Pseudo-scientists will try to convince us that there are “bottlenecks”, that no matter how many factors intervene, all must lead to one of the “bottlenecks”, and countermeasures will catch them there. Nonsense: I just thought of a dozen, and I thought of hundreds of ways to circumvent them. All people with minimum computer or mathematical skills can. (I’m just trying to make a point here! don’t put me on any list.)
So what’s the answer?
There is no simple solution. Maybe the hearts and minds approach will work. We now know that this approach was not truly implemented in Vietnam. It only helped corrupt people get richer.
And the “Hearts and Minds” approach can even be economically viable.
Picture this: You do not give money to poor countries. You just make preliminary studies of their needs. Say you implement a project of sewage in a big third world city. I hardly think that people will dig up the sewers and sell them!
And you would have made your factories work. You have to make the pipes and the machinery and so on. And your workers will have work. And any system need maintenance and spare parts. And who is best placed to sell spare parts that the people who built the system in the first place? And also, you are employing local people in implementing your projects, you are alleviating poverty! The same is true for telecommunications networks, road works, railways, etc…. and this is not Utopia, this is really the way Japan is giving aid. Many times I stood in appreciation before a sign saying “This project was a gift from the people of Japan” or some such words.
The third world would then consider any nation helping in such a way as a savior, and animosity will stop.
Compare the price of expensive anti-ballistic missile system and the cost of implementing such projects. Do they really have economist? didn’t they even consider the above?