“Global warming could reduce how many hurricanes hit the United States, according to a new federal study that clashes with other research.” So writes AP science writer Seth Borenstein in an article with connections to two recent books reviewed at the Science Shelf.
“The new study is the latest in a contentious scientific debate over how man-made global warming may affect the intensity and number of hurricanes,” the article continues, citing a report by Chunzai Wang, a research oceanographer at NOAA.
Wang’s reasoning is that higher ocean surface temperatures lead to greater wind shear, a phenomenon that disrupts hurricane formation.
Needless to say, Wang’s findings are controversial.
The two book reviews show how this controversy is playing out in a political context. In my review of Censoring Science, I take author Mark Bowen to task.
He frequently overstates the scientific case, for example writing: “So it would seem obvious that if the oceans heat up, we should expect more intense hurricanes. (When all is said and done the physics of this question is probably about as simple as that.)” Since hurricanes result from a complex interaction between oceans and the atmosphere and are easily disrupted by phenomena such as wind shear, few atmospheric physicists would call that conclusion obvious.
It’s not that I think I’m smarter or better informed than Bowen. It’s just that I think Chris Mooney’s more nuanced presentation in Storm World captures both the science and the political controversy that swirls with hurricanes much better.
My review of that book states:
The IPCC has stated that to a high level of confidence, human-created greenhouse gases are dramatically changing the climate. It has called for international agreements and protocols to prevent worst-case scenarios from becoming realities.
But on the question of how global warming would change hurricanes, the IPCC conclusion is much less certain. Warmer seas might produce more frequent or more severe hurricanes, but many other atmospheric and climate factors also contribute to storm development.
No matter where you stand politically or scientifically on the implications of climate change, the questions of whether warmer seas will produce more or fewer hurricanes and whether the average hurricane will be stronger or weaker remain open.
People who love science for the sake of the questions more than the answers can only be delighted by this one–unless they or people they care about happen to live in the path of the next storm.
