Explosion of child obesity predicted to reverse U.S. life expectancy

It’s been assumed that U.S. life expectancy would rise indefinitely, but a new data analysis, published as a special report in the March 17 New England Journal of Medicine, suggests that this trend is about to reverse itself — due to the rapid rise in obesity, especially among children. A review by obesity researcher David Ludwig of Children’s Hospital Boston, epidemiologist S. Jay Olshansky of the University of Illinois at Chicago, and colleagues concludes that obesity now reduces average life expectancy by about 4 to 9 months, a conservative estimate. More ominously, the researchers further conclude that if the current epidemic of child and adolescent obesity continues unabated, life expectancy could be shortened by two to five years in the coming decades.

The researchers based their predictions on data on the prevalence of obesity from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and previously published estimates of years-of-life lost from obesity. A reduced life expectancy could have implications for such programs as Social Security and Medicare, they suggest.

Current trends indicate that the prevalence of obesity will continue to rise and affect ever-younger age groups, especially among children, the researchers note. Minority groups are expected to be hardest hit because of their reduced access to health care and especially sharp increases in childhood and adult obesity.

The long-term consequences of the child obesity epidemic have yet to be seen, says Ludwig, who directs the Optimal Weight for Life (OWL) program at Children’s Hospital Boston. Obesity is known to increase risk for heart disease and cancer, and the surge in childhood obesity has already triggered an unprecedented rise in type 2 (“adult”) diabetes in children.

“The tsunami of childhood obesity has not yet hit the shore — it takes many years for complications to develop,” Ludwig says. “If the clock starts ticking at age 12 or 14, the consequences to public health are potentially disastrous — imagine heart attack or kidney failure becoming a relatively common condition of young adulthood.”

Two thirds of American adults today are obese or overweight, and the proportion of people with extreme obesity has risen especially rapidly, the investigators note. Thus far, medical treatment has had little success in offsetting this trend.

Ludwig attributes much of the obesity epidemic to environmental factors. “If we were to reverse environmental factors back to those of the 1960s, most of the obesity epidemic would disappear,” he asserts.

In the past 40 years, fast food, junk food, and soft drinks have become a prominent part of the landscape. Food advertising directed at children has exploded, and portion sizes have ballooned (see attached fact sheet). Schools have become purveyors of fast food and soft drinks through contracts with the food and beverage industry that help fund school programs — even as they cut physical education classes from their curricula to save money. At the same time, children are becoming more sedentary, spending more time watching TV and using computers.

Moreover, many insurance companies don’t cover obesity treatment, or offer only limited coverage. Nationally, reimbursement is as little as 10 percent, Ludwig notes.

“To tackle obesity we will need unambiguous political leadership at all levels of government, to make clear that public health has to come before private profit,” he says. “This means a fundamental shift in the social environment that will support healthful eating and an active lifestyle. While the campaign must be led by government, it will require the active participation of primary care physicians, nutritionists, schools, and parents.”

Founded in 1869 as a 20-bed hospital for children, Children’s Hospital Boston today is the nation’s leading pediatric medical center, the largest provider of health care to Massachusetts children, and the primary pediatric teaching hospital of Harvard Medical School. In addition to 325 pediatric and adolescent inpatient beds and comprehensive outpatient programs, Children’s houses the world’s largest research enterprise based at a pediatric medical center, where its discoveries benefit both children and adults. More than 500 scientists, including eight members of the National Academy of Sciences, nine members of the Institute of Medicine and 10 members of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute comprise Children’s research community. For more information about the hospital visit: http://www.childrenshospital.org.


An Obesity Index

Courtesy: David Ludwig, MD, PhD

1. Proportion of American adults that are overweight: 2/3
2. Proportion that are obese: 1/3
3. Proportion of American children with excessive body weight: 25% to 30%
4. Increase in childhood obesity in the past 25 years: 2.3 to 3.3 fold
5. Estimated increase, in the past 20 years, in the prevalence of childhood diabetes: 10-fold
6. Americans’ average daily fat intake, as a percentage of total calories, in 1960: 42%
7. The same percentage in 2000: 33
8. Increase in per capita consumption of soft drinks, 1950s to today: 500%
9. Amount that one additional soft drink per day increases a child’s risk for obesity: 60%
10. Percentage of school districts that have contracts with soft-drink companies, allowing them to sell soft drinks on school premises: 50%
11. Proportion of a child’s calories that originate from fast food, 1970s: 2%
12. The same proportion today: 10%
13. Percentage of children eating fast food on a given day, according to a national survey: 30%
14. Ratio of the total daily calorie needs of the average 10-year-old to the number of calories in a single “supersize” fast food meal: 1:1
15. Number of food ads viewed by the average child each year: 10,000
16. Percentage of these that advertise fast food, soft drinks, candy, or sugared cereals: 95%
17. Estimated annual amount spent on food advertising aimed at U.S. children: $10 billion
18. Budget for the “Five a Day” program, a federal educational program to increase fruit and vegetable consumption: $1.1 million
19. The entire federal budget for nutrition education, compared with the advertising costs for Altoids mints: 1/5
20. Increase in risk for childhood obesity per hour of daily television viewing: 12%
21. Decrease in risk for childhood obesity per hour of exercise: 10%
22. Average insurance reimbursement rate for childhood obesity treatment: 10%
23. Average charge for coronary-bypass surgery: $60,853
24. Estimated average cost of three one-hour sessions with a dietician at an obesity clinic: $180
25. Annual direct costs of obesity to the American economy in 1995: $100 billion

From Children’s Hospital Boston

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2 thoughts on “Explosion of child obesity predicted to reverse U.S. life expectancy”

  1. There have been many discussions about how to stop childhood obesity.

    But what is the best? Cut down on food or eat more of the right food, or do more exercise. Maybe one day someone will come up with the answer and more importantly a way to get kids to go along with it

    Stop Obesity

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