{"id":1905,"date":"2021-12-16T10:56:48","date_gmt":"2021-12-16T10:56:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/horizon.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=1905"},"modified":"2021-12-16T10:56:48","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T10:56:48","slug":"qa-future-pandemics-are-inevitable-but-we-can-reduce-the-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/1905\/qa-future-pandemics-are-inevitable-but-we-can-reduce-the-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Q&A: Future pandemics are inevitable, but we can reduce the risk"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Coronavirus will not be the last pandemic in our lifetime. Scientists warn the threat posed by zoonoses \u2013 infectious diseases that jump from animals to humans \u2013 is on the rise. And the risk of a new pandemic is higher now than ever before.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Our search for answers led us to a\u00a0scientist leading a Europe-wide system to detect future pandemic risks. Prof.\u00a0M\u00e1ire\u00a0Connolly said:\u00a0\u2018The most likely scenario for the next pandemic is a new strain of influenza like the H7N9 \u201cbird flu\u201d virus, or a newly identified\u00a0virus such as\u00a0another novel coronavirus.\u2019<\/p>\n

In an interview,\u00a0Prof. Connolly, who coordinates\u00a0the pandemic preparedness and response project PANDEM-2<\/a> under the EC\u2019s security research work programme, and follows the earlier PANDEM<\/a> project, explains why we\u2019re under threat of another pandemic.<\/p>\n

\u2018Over the last 100 years the world has experienced 4 influenza pandemics, with an occurrence every 15-30 years\u00a0and\u00a0with an annual probability of between 3% to 7%,\u2019\u00a0For a new pandemic to happen, a new\u00a0virus\u00a0must emerge\u00a0to which the general population has little or no immunity,\u00a0must replicate\u00a0in humans and\u00a0transmit readily\u00a0from one person to another,\u00a0causing the disease\u00a0to spread across the globe.\u2019\u00a0\u00a0said Prof. Connolly who teaches at NUI Galway\u2019s School of Medicine.<\/p>\n

Drawing on her\u00a0expertise in health security, disease surveillance, and emerging infectious diseases, as well as her\u00a0experience working on pandemic preparedness at the World Health Organization (WHO<\/a>), Prof. Connolly\u00a0talks to us about the\u00a0possibility of a new pandemic\u00a0and how we can\u00a0guard\u00a0against it.<\/p>\n

Edited excerpts of the interview follow.<\/p>\n

Where could the next\u00a0pandemic\u00a0come from?\u202f<\/strong><\/p>\n

Large\u00a0intensive\u00a0livestock farms can result in \u201cspillover infections\u201d from animals to people\u00a0while greater movement of animals and animal products have also contributed to the threat from emerging diseases.\u00a0New strains of avian influenza circulate in wild birds across the world every year.\u00a0Intensive poultry\u00a0farming practices increase\u00a0the risk of\u00a0infection of domestic birds by wild birds and\u00a0subsequent\u00a0transmission to poultry workers.<\/p>\n

Encroachment into virgin forests for mining and timber can also expose\u00a0humans to pandemic prone pathogens, for example Ebola.<\/p>\n

Other sources include the\u00a0amplification of diseases in healthcare settings at the outset of a pandemic where infection prevention and control measures are inadequate,\u00a0increased spread in dense overcrowded cities, and\u00a0poor biosecurity measures in laboratories conducting research on high-risk pathogens leading to accidental release.<\/p>\n

The advancement of technology and information on development of bioweapons is increasing the risk of deliberate release of a biological agent\u00a0as another possible scenario.<\/p>\n

What about\u00a0climate change?\u00a0Can a warming climate increase\u00a0the likelihood of another pandemic?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Climate change is directly linked to a higher risk of a pandemic as rising temperatures\u00a0enable\u00a0mosquitoes, ticks,\u00a0and other\u00a0disease-carrying insects to proliferate, adapt to different seasons and invade new territories.<\/p>\n

For example, flooding due to extreme weather creates new breeding grounds for mosquitoes, making the spread of dengue fever more likely. Melting permafrost can release pathogens from animal carcasses like the anthrax outbreak in the Yamal Peninsula, Siberia in 2016.<\/p>\n

Sounds simple: protecting nature to prevent future outbreaks. Can you give us some examples about what this look like on the ground?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes. Reducing\u00a0droughts or floods would reduce the risk of population displacement and the associated risk of disease outbreaks. Reducing the demand for meat and supporting more sustainable farming would lower greenhouse gas emissions and could decrease the risk of emerging infectious disease.<\/p>\n

Additionally, monitoring of weather data to identify geographical areas at risk of disease emergence would support early warnings of future pandemics.<\/p>\n

Concerning the \u201cspillover infections\u201d you mentioned earlier, what can we do to\u00a0prepare?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The health of the human population is closely related to animal health – this is underlined by the fact that over\u00a0the\u00a0last 30 years, 75% of emerging diseases have been zoonoses.\u00a0Therefore, effective preparedness and response at all levels is needed to protect the health of citizens and animals alike.<\/p>\n

Can we prevent\u00a0a new infection jumping the species barrier?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes, we\u00a0can reduce the risk by\u00a0regulating the\u00a0trade in wild animals and bushmeat, particularly live animals in wet markets, and through early detection of spillover events in high-risk\u00a0areas.<\/p>\n

Other measures involve better regulation of poultry farming with rapid detection and reporting of sick birds, and the surveillance of wild birds. This would aid detection of avian influenza and reduce the risk of its introduction into domestic birds and poultry farms.<\/p>\n

The spread of infection can also be prevented by rapid reporting of clusters of cases of unknown diseases in hospitals in countries at risk of disease emergence or \u201chot zones.\u201d Rapid reporting can also be used to quickly and effectively prompt implementation of containment measures where needed.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, investments in information technology at Member State, EU and global levels\u00a0will\u00a0ensure access to accurate real-time data for pandemic response.<\/p>\n

Can you tell us more about the PANDEM-2 project and who will benefit?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The\u00a0goal of PANDEM-2\u00a0is\u00a0to identify, map and integrate data from multiple sources into a coherent pandemic-management database and to develop an extensive dashboard for pandemic preparedness training and response.\u00a0The dashboard compiles\u00a0data\u00a0sources\u00a0on the social, economic and health-related impacts of\u00a0a\u00a0pandemic.<\/p>\n

We are also creating\u00a0planning tools\u00a0and training materials,\u00a0as well as\u00a0scenarios based on novel influenza,\u00a0Ebola\u00a0and \u2018Disease X,\u2019 or novel coronavirus, for\u00a0use in\u00a0cross-border\u00a0pandemic response\u00a0exercises.<\/p>\n

While advances have been made in the areas\u00a0of diagnostics and therapeutics, there\u00a0remains a need\u00a0for\u00a0information management tools\u00a0and a common platform\u00a0for\u00a0cross-border collaboration on pandemic\u00a0preparedness and response.<\/p>\n

The PANDEM-2 project will incorporate lessons learnt during the current COVID-19 pandemic\u00a0and build\u00a0international best practice into the areas of modelling, simulations, pandemic communications, contact tracing and training.<\/p>\n

PANDEM-2 will\u00a0help\u00a0pandemic managers in public health\u00a0agencies, first responders, laboratory technicians and hospital managers.\u00a0Advances in visual\u00a0and data\u00a0analytics will support pandemic managers in critical decision-making\u00a0and ultimately\u00a0benefit EU citizens\u00a0by\u00a0reducing the impact of future pandemics.<\/p>\n

What\u00a0would you highlight as\u00a0the key results for PANDEM and PANDEM-2?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our research has shown\u00a0the importance of trust, leadership,\u00a0and\u00a0counteracting disinformation and misinformation. What is required is a\u00a0two-way\u00a0communication with the public\u00a0with\u00a0access to accurate real time data\u00a0and\u00a0social media\u00a0analysis\u00a0to measure public sentiment and support for pandemic\u00a0control measures.\u00a0The project will ultimately provide the tools to effectively support this requirement in the future.<\/p>\n

Advances in diagnostics and next generation sequencing data\u00a0will help\u00a0to determine the spread and transmission chains of pandemic prone pathogens and\u00a0guide future pandemic control measures. The project\u2019s pandemic management database and comprehensive dashboard will help to coordinate this information into an accessible source.<\/p>\n

What is the\u00a0latest news from\u00a0your project?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Most recently, PANDEM-2 has been fortunate to collaborate with leading organisations from around the world to further advance the project. We are working with colleagues from\u00a0the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC<\/a>)\u00a0on contact tracing, and\u00a0WHO<\/a> colleagues are providing input on our findings relating to pandemic communications and the\u00a0infodemic.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Defence\u00a0Forces in Ireland are also providing valuable insights into the role of\u00a0the military in future pandemic responses in areas such as contact tracing, testing, vaccination rollout, logistics and critical infrastructure protection.<\/p>\n

The research in this article was funded by the EU. If you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Coronavirus will not be the last pandemic in our lifetime. Scientists warn the threat posed by zoonoses \u2013 infectious diseases that jump from animals to humans \u2013 is on the rise. And the risk of a new pandemic is higher now than ever before.   Our search for answers led us to a\u00a0scientist leading a … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":298,"featured_media":1906,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-health"],"yoast_head":"\nQ&A: Future pandemics are inevitable, but we can reduce the risk - Horizon Magazine Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/1905\/qa-future-pandemics-are-inevitable-but-we-can-reduce-the-risk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Q&A: Future pandemics are inevitable, but we can reduce the risk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Coronavirus will not be the last pandemic in our lifetime. 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