{"id":192,"date":"2018-03-15T11:36:30","date_gmt":"2018-03-15T11:36:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/horizon.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=192"},"modified":"2018-05-29T23:44:43","modified_gmt":"2018-05-29T23:44:43","slug":"climate-sensitivity-reducing-the-uncertainty-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/192\/climate-sensitivity-reducing-the-uncertainty-of-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate sensitivity – reducing the uncertainty of uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"
Global warming is a reality \u2013 but just how bad will it be? A study published in January 2018 claims to\u00a0halve the uncertainty around how much our planet’s temperature will change in response to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, potentially giving governments more confidence to prepare for the future.<\/strong><\/div>\n
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The results suggest that, when it comes to the climate, both the doom-mongers and optimists are wrong. On the other hand, they have prompted a heated debate over how certain you can be about uncertainty.<\/div>\n
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\u2018People are quite rightly looking at what we\u2019ve done, because we\u2019re claiming quite a big reduction in uncertainty, based on a pretty simple analysis,\u2019 said lead author Professor Peter Cox of the University of Exeter in the UK.<\/p>\n

The climate is a complex beast. To make predictions about how much temperatures will rise in the future, scientists employ hugely detailed computer simulations, which rely on swathes of experimental data as input.<\/p>\n

But there is a big unknown in these simulations: how much warming do you get for a certain amount of CO2? This simple parameter is known as the climate\u2019s sensitivity, and it dominates our uncertainty about future global warming.<\/p>\n

Normally, climate sensitivity is estimated by looking at historical data on temperature and greenhouse gases \u2013 either measurements of global warming or records of past climates, such as ice cores and tree rings. Given a rise in CO2 and a concurrent rise in temperature, scientists can judge how much the former affects the latter.<\/p>\n

Big range<\/strong><\/p>\n

For the past 25 years or so, studies based on this method have led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to conclude that the sensitivity of the Earth to a doubling in CO2 falls in a \u2018likely\u2019 range of 1.5\u00b0C to 4.5\u00b0C, with a central estimate of 3\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Prof. Cox believes this degree of uncertainty isn\u2019t good enough. \u2018I think it\u2019s slightly embarrassing that we\u2019ve had a range that is so large for so long,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n

\n
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‘I think it\u2019s slightly embarrassing that we\u2019ve had a range that is so large for so long.’<\/p>\n

Prof. Peter Cox, University of Exeter, UK<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

According to Prof. Cox, it is difficult to reduce the uncertainty using conventional methods because the historical records aren\u2019t enough to work out how much heat has been put into the system by human activities. Although scientists know how much heat has been added by increasing CO2\u200b levels, he says, they know rather less about the compensating cooling effects of aerosol particles \u2013 for instance sulphates, which are produced by volcanoes and the burning of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

To avoid this problem, Prof. Cox and colleagues ignore the historical warming trend altogether, and instead picture the climate as a spring. The length of the spring is the global temperature, and the weights on the end are the net heating due to CO2 and aerosols.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Crucially, to work out the sensitivity using this new method, Cox and his co-authors don\u2019t actually need to know how much weight there is. All they need to do is measure the spring\u2019s stiffness,\u00a0and this is betrayed by how quickly the spring oscillates \u2013\u00a0or in real terms, how much temperatures have varied from year to year.<\/p>\n

A \u2018stiff\u2019 climate equals a small sensitivity, while a \u2018slack\u2019 climate equals a big sensitivity. In their paper published in the journal Nature, Prof. Cox and colleagues estimate the sensitivity to be in the \u2018likely\u2019 range of 2.2\u00b0C to 3.4\u00b0C \u2013\u00a0less than half the range given by the IPCC.<\/p>\n

Sensitive figures<\/strong><\/p>\n

To be clear, this range is not necessarily how much warming anyone should expect. It only reflects how much warming there would be for a doubling of CO2 levels since the baseline period of pre-industrialisation \u2013\u00a0although we\u2019re about halfway to that threshold already.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the researchers\u2019 results appear to simultaneously exclude the very worst-\u00a0and best-case scenarios. \u2018I sort of see this as good news, in that our range says values above 4\u00b0C are unlikely, and so we\u2019re not yet too late to avoid the 2o<\/sup>C limit set by the Paris Agreement,\u2019 said Prof. Cox.<\/p>\n

\"In
Image credit – Horizon<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But not everyone is on board with the new statistics. Climate scientist Professor Tapio Schneider of Caltech in California, US, believes the researchers have mistakenly assumed that their springy relationship is linear, when it could be more complicated.<\/p>\n

This view is not shared by Dr James Annan of Blue Skies Research in the UK. On his blog he describes himself as a \u2018fan\u2019 of the new approach, albeit \u2018not uncritically\u2019.<\/p>\n

Professor Reto Knutti of ETH Z\u00fcrich in Switzerland points out that Prof. Cox and colleagues are not the first to try an alternative method to cut the uncertainty surrounding climate sensitivity, and \u2018it\u2019s not obvious why theirs should be much better than others\u2019.<\/p>\n

\u2018So while I do find those emergent constraints promising, and I hope we will be able to narrow the range eventually, there is a danger of finding spurious and not robust correlations \u2013 the result being that error bars are too small,\u2019 he added.<\/p>\n

Prof. Cox admits that his group\u2019s results will probably not be the last word, but he is hopeful that they can move the science of climate uncertainty forwards, beyond the IPCC range. \u2018I think there\u2019s good reason to believe climate scientists are now ready to reduce the long-standing uncertainty in ECS (equilibrium climate sensitivity). It is high-time that we did that,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Originally published on Horizon<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global warming is a reality \u2013 but just how bad will it be? A study published in January 2018 claims to\u00a0halve the uncertainty around how much our planet’s temperature will change in response to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, potentially giving governments more confidence to prepare for the future. The results suggest that, when it … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":311,"featured_media":193,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[11],"tags":[126,4,132,79,24],"class_list":["post-192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-earth-energy-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-global-warming","tag-research","tag-science"],"yoast_head":"\nClimate sensitivity - reducing the uncertainty of uncertainty - Horizon Magazine Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/192\/climate-sensitivity-reducing-the-uncertainty-of-uncertainty\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Climate sensitivity - reducing the uncertainty of uncertainty\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global warming is a reality \u2013 but just how bad will it be? 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By\u00a0\u00a0MICHAEL ALLEN Predicting how much Earth\u2019s climate will warm is vital to helping humankind prepare for the future. That in turn requires tackling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/03\/8-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/03\/8-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/03\/8-scaled.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/03\/8-scaled.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/03\/8-scaled.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2023\/03\/8-scaled.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":989,"url":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/989\/the-biggest-threat-to-our-oceans-is-that-weve-taken-them-for-granted\/","url_meta":{"origin":192,"position":1},"title":"\u2018The biggest threat to our oceans is that we\u2019ve taken them for granted\u2019","author":"Joanna Roberts","date":"September 25, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u2018The biggest threat to our oceans is that we\u2019ve taken them for\u00a0granted\u2019 IPCC report and oceans take centre stage at EU research event in Brussels. by Joanna\u00a0Roberts People need to be persuaded that the ocean is not a problem or dangerous for humans, but that we are a problem for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"There is still uncertainty around the knock-on effects of abrupt ocean changes. 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Enormous field studies of clouds\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Clouds are important from a climate point of view for how they reflect and absorb sunlight, according to Professor Pier Siebesma, an atmospheric physicist. 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That\u2019s why it\u2019s necessary to keep developing and refining such models to better support climate policies. \u00a0 What\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/11\/benhard_staehli_shutterstock_324590741.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/11\/benhard_staehli_shutterstock_324590741.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/11\/benhard_staehli_shutterstock_324590741.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":498,"url":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/498\/climate-actions-that-lift-people-out-of-poverty-are-often-most-cost-effective\/","url_meta":{"origin":192,"position":4},"title":"Climate actions that lift people out of poverty are often most cost-effective","author":"Joanna Roberts","date":"October 12, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The most cost-effective climate change actions are also those that could help us achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) such as ending poverty and hunger, according to Dr Keywan Riahi, director of the energy program of the International Institute Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, who says the first step should\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Limiting global warming to 1.5\u00b0C would save hundreds of millions of vulnerable people from being exposed to the extremes of a 2\u00b0C world.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/10\/Water_distribution_in_Horn_of_Africa.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/10\/Water_distribution_in_Horn_of_Africa.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/10\/Water_distribution_in_Horn_of_Africa.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/10\/Water_distribution_in_Horn_of_Africa.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/10\/Water_distribution_in_Horn_of_Africa.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/10\/Water_distribution_in_Horn_of_Africa.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":389,"url":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/389\/could-symbiotic-microbes-help-ecosystems-survive-global-warming\/","url_meta":{"origin":192,"position":5},"title":"Could symbiotic microbes help ecosystems survive global warming?","author":"Steve Gillman","date":"July 31, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Studies of the relationships between microbes and the organisms they live on are revealing how plants and animals could adapt to climate change. With the world facing a global warming somewhere between\u00a01 and 5.5 degrees Celsius, organisms that have evolved to thrive in specific environments need to adapt or they\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Symbiotic bacteria might have helped coffee plants adapt to climate change in the past.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/07\/coffeeplant.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/07\/coffeeplant.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/07\/coffeeplant.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/07\/coffeeplant.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/07\/coffeeplant.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/07\/coffeeplant.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/311"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}