{"id":2133,"date":"2022-08-22T18:13:15","date_gmt":"2022-08-22T18:13:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/horizon.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=2133"},"modified":"2022-08-22T18:13:15","modified_gmt":"2022-08-22T18:13:15","slug":"mediterranean-wineries-are-in-a-climate-hotspot-climatologists-are-helping-them-adapt-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/2133\/mediterranean-wineries-are-in-a-climate-hotspot-climatologists-are-helping-them-adapt-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Mediterranean wineries are in a climate hotspot. Climatologists are helping them adapt"},"content":{"rendered":"

From the possible demise of Merlot grapes in Bordeaux to loss of olive trees in north Africa, the impacts of climate change will be felt by farmers across the Mediterranean region, say climatologists.<\/p>\n

To help the region\u2019s agricultural producers cope with shifting weather patterns, and make strategic decisions now for the future, scientists are researching new growing techniques, and creating climate forecasts.<\/p>\n

The Mediterranean Basin \u2013 comprising countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea \u2013 is a\u00a0climate hotspot<\/a>. It is experiencing faster than average\u00a0rises in temperature<\/a>\u00a0and may suffer major\u00a0losses of rainfall<\/a>\u00a0in future decades.<\/p>\n

Wine makers are among those already feeling the effects.<\/p>\n

\u2018Climate change is not only a thing of the future it is happening now. We see an increase of mean temperatures, and this already has an impact on grape growing,\u2019 said Josep Maria Sol\u00e9 Tasias, coordinator of\u00a0VISCA<\/a>, a project developing forecasts and pruning techniques to help vineyards adapt to climate change.<\/p>\n

One impact is that higher temperatures make grapes ripen too early, before their aromas have had a chance to fully develop. \u2018That is something the wineries are very worried about,\u2019 said Sol\u00e9 Tasias who is a civil engineer at Meteosim SL, a Spanish company offering meteorological services.<\/p>\n

In southwestern France, the Bordeaux region\u2019s famous Merlot and Sauvignon blanc grapes are expected to be\u00a0victims of climate change<\/a>, so wine makers there are\u00a0testing more resilient grape varieties<\/a>\u00a0from southern and eastern Europe.<\/p>\n

Another solution is to find plots of land in more northern or elevated cooler locations to plant for the future.<\/p>\n

But small wineries will find it difficult to make such large investments, says Sol\u00e9 Tasias. So VISCA has been testing some innovative farming techniques to see if they can minimise the damage.<\/p>\n

These include \u2018crop forcing\u2019, which involves pruning vines so the grapes mature later in the growing season once temperatures have dropped. But deciding when to prune is difficult – too early or too late in the growing season would impact the harvest.<\/p>\n

Forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n

VISCA has developed seasonal forecasts which are helping farmers assess the best times to apply these techniques. They use detailed data about the vineyard \u2013 including location, soil type, and grape variety \u2013 to estimate when vines will produce buds or grapes will ripen, as well as predicting temperatures and rainfall.<\/p>\n

But unlike short-term weather forecasts which can accurately predict whether there will be a frost or warm sunshine, seasonal forecasts of up to six months ahead are much less certain. Knowing how to use them for decision-making is complex, says Sol\u00e9 Tasias.<\/p>\n

\u2018Farmers at the moment don\u2019t know exactly how to use them \u2013 they are used to making decisions in the short-term,\u2019 said Sol\u00e9 Tasias.<\/p>\n

A seasonal forecast could for example say there is 60% probability there will be a particularly warm summer. If a farmer delays the ripening of their grapes based on this assumption, they may lose money if the summer turns out to be normal.<\/p>\n

\u2018Farmers have to understand that their decision can result in losses,\u2019 said Sol\u00e9 Tasias.<\/p>\n

To help with this, VISCA has worked with some wineries to create a list of actions based on each short-term and seasonal forecast \u2013 for example, buy more chemicals to deal with a possible spike in pest numbers, or prune the vines to delay the grape harvest \u2013 and spell out the financial risks associated with each option.<\/p>\n

The options and risks will be tailored to each vineyard or winery. And the more information the\u00a0researchers have about the vineyard, the better they can forecast, they say.<\/p>\n

Unpredictability<\/strong><\/p>\n

Long-term climate forecasting is particularly difficult in the Mediterranean region, says Dr Alessandro Dell\u2019Aquila, co-coordinator of the\u00a0MED-GOLD project<\/a>, which is developing climate services for pasta, olive oil and wine producers.<\/p>\n

\u2018It has an intrinsic unpredictability because there is a lot of noise due to large-scale (atmospheric) movements and perturbations,\u2019 said Dr Dell\u2019Aquila, who is a climatologist at the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA).<\/p>\n

The tropics, by contrast, are more stable, which means that seasonal forecasts for coffee, tea, maize and other crops in parts of Africa and South America could be more accurate.<\/p>\n

But seasonal forecasts will still be vital for Mediterranean farmers despite their uncertainty, says Dr Dell\u2019Aquila.<\/p>\n

The longer-term impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean are likely to be severe.<\/p>\n

\u2018The Mediterranean could look very different in future decades. We may have completely different species of animals or insects that could arrive from the tropics, and we could experience loss of local biodiversity,\u2019 said Dr Dell\u2019Aquila.<\/p>\n

We could also have less water available, including for agricultural purposes, he says. \u2018And the region may experience a higher number of (severe) heatwaves.\u2019<\/p>\n

Some crops will need to be grown on higher ground or further north where the climate will be cooler and wetter. More field irrigation will be needed and, in the case of grapes, different varieties will have to be grown.<\/p>\n

Parts of Europe may open up for wine and olive oil production for the first time, while other areas may see a collapse.<\/p>\n

\u2018There are some ideas of moving olive trees northward to new growing regions. And parts of the Mediterranean \u2013 for example, north Africa \u2013 could become too hot for olive groves.\u2019<\/p>\n

Similarly, while wine production has recently expanded in the UK and Denmark, certain southern Italian wines may become extremely rare within the next decade, Dr Dell\u2019Aquila says.<\/p>\n

Support<\/strong><\/p>\n

EU policy needs to change to support producers adapting to climate change, he says. Rules that regulate the composition of wines, for example, could be changed to allow producers to use different varieties of grape \u2013 even grapes from different regions \u2013 without changing the name of the wine. \u2018This could be very important for consumers because they want to go to the supermarket and find a (Chianti), and the name of this wine is clearly defined in some EU rules.\u2019<\/p>\n

In the meantime, producers need to act now. \u2018Wine-makers should start thinking now where they can buy new plots of land and start planting grapes as an investment for the next 10 or 20 years,\u2019 said Dr Dell\u2019Aquila.<\/p>\n

The research in this article was funded by the EU. This article was originally published\u202f<\/em>in Horizon<\/em><\/a>, the EU Research and Innovation Magazine.\u202f\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

The issue<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the climate changes, we need to prepare for its impacts and take action to minimise the damage to our environment, society and economy. This is known as climate adaptation.<\/p>\n

On 24 February 2021, the EU published its climate adaptation strategy which sets out how to make Europe more climate resilient and protect people from the impacts of climate change, such as heatwaves and flooding. Follow the link for more information on the\u00a0EU strategy on adaptation to climate change<\/a>.<\/p>\n

More info<\/p>\n

VISCA<\/a><\/p>\n

MED-GOLD<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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To help the region\u2019s agricultural producers cope with shifting weather patterns, and make strategic decisions now for the future, scientists are researching … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":298,"featured_media":2134,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-earth-energy-environment"],"yoast_head":"\nMediterranean wineries are in a climate hotspot. 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