{"id":280,"date":"2018-05-16T14:43:14","date_gmt":"2018-05-16T14:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/horizon.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=280"},"modified":"2018-05-29T23:41:18","modified_gmt":"2018-05-29T23:41:18","slug":"supercomputers-and-space-based-laser-to-help-predict-extreme-weather-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/280\/supercomputers-and-space-based-laser-to-help-predict-extreme-weather-events\/","title":{"rendered":"Supercomputers and space-based laser to help predict extreme weather events"},"content":{"rendered":"

From droughts and forest fires to floods and big freezes, extreme weather events are on the rise. But to what extent are these linked to climate change? Just months before the world\u2019s first wind monitoring satellite enters orbit, scientists have finalised a climate model with exceptional resolution, and the new tools will help identify how climate change impacts weather-related natural disasters like storm surges, hurricanes and heatwaves.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

To quantify the likelihood of dangerous weather events taking place, Dr Peter Stott from the Met Office \u2013 the UK\u2019s national weather service \u2013 has helped code a computer model that charts out the Earth\u2019s atmosphere in unprecedented detail.<\/p>\n

\u2018Resolution is essential because even tiny perturbations to the environment can have massive impacts on the weather,\u2019 said Dr Stott.<\/p>\n

Typical climate algorithms simplify portions of the sky as single pixels spanning volumes some 100-kilometres across. But thanks to work done through a project called EUCLEIA, coordinated by the Met Office, climate scientists can now zoom into details less than half that size.<\/p>\n

The detail of the new model comes at the cost of higher computing power and the Met Office relies on a supercomputer to run its code. This vast machine simulates extreme weather events that emerge from extrapolating ground and satellite data gathered over the past 50 years.<\/p>\n

‘The scientific community had previously resolved that single weather events could not be ascribed to long-term trends in the climate. But we now talk about the probability of these events occurring.’<\/p>\n

Dr Peter Stott, Met Office, UK<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

To take the chaotic nature of the elements into account, the hulking model runs each scenario hundreds of times in a loop, compiling a range of possible outcomes. It then repeats the calculation by supposing that global temperatures had not increased over the same period and finds a different set of outcomes.<\/p>\n

Conceptual leap<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018After the 2003 heatwave, we made a conceptual leap forward,\u2019 said Dr Stott. \u2018The scientific community had previously resolved that single weather events could not be ascribed to long-term trends in the climate. But we now talk about the probability of these events occurring, and that is proving useful.\u2019<\/p>\n

Building on the statistical predictions of the EUCLEIA approach, the follow-up project EUPHEME is now helping to manage some of the impacts that climate change is having on society. As part of its 18-country strong consortium, Dr Stott is fine-tuning the new climate model further with complex phenomena such as climate feedback mechanisms and air movements in the upper atmosphere.<\/p>\n

\u2018We would like to work on wind in the future,\u2019 said Dr Stott. \u2018But for that we need good curation of good data. Without it, we couldn\u2019t do any of this.\u2019<\/p>\n

Help may soon be at hand, as the European Space Agency (ESA) is preparing to launch Aeolus \u2013 the first satellite to observe wind speeds directly from space.<\/p>\n

European weather is driven largely by air currents high above the tropics. Today little is known about this corner of the atmosphere, but ESA is hoping that will change.<\/p>\n

\u2018It is a complete breakthrough in measuring techniques from space,\u2019 said Anders Elfving, space mission project manager at ESA, who manages the \u20ac480 million Aeolus project.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/a><\/p>\n

The European Space Agency’s Aeolus satellite will observe wind speeds from space. Image credit – ESA<\/p>\n

Ultraviolet light<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Aeolus satellite packs a powerful laser that pulses ultraviolet light into the atmosphere. A 1.5 metre telescope on board will collect the reflected beam, allowing scientists to identify wind speeds from tiny shifts in the light\u2019s frequency.<\/p>\n

ESA started developing the technology in 2002. NASA and other major space agencies launched similar initiatives but ran out of funds in the face of overwhelming technical challenges.<\/p>\n

Elfving says that the laser discharge alone blasts materials 50 times each second with close to 30 megawatts of peak power. \u2018At that power, a single atomic layer of contamination would be enough to kill our optics,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n

Even the most spotless clean room on Earth cannot reach such standards. To solve the problem, ESA has perfected a technique to decontaminate satellite parts in the vacuum of space. Spraying very small concentrations of oxygen on the optics, the laser beam burns organic matter away, preventing it from carbonising and overheating components.<\/p>\n

In 2017, ESA assembled the equipment on board Aeolus and put it to the test both under take-off and vacuum conditions. The satellite is now being checked and mounted with solar arrays at the Intespace space centre in Toulouse, France. It will soon be shipped to French Guyana for launch on board a European Vega rocket on 21 August.<\/p>\n

Once in orbit, the satellite will sweep the entire globe continuously over seven-day intervals and provide currently unavailable data free of charge. Subsequent satellites could even provide round the clock coverage for anyone charting early tropical winds and the course of emerging storms.<\/p>\n

\u2018Aeolus will be a big asset for weather forecast and climate models,\u2019 said Elfving.<\/p>\n

Originally published on Horizon<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From droughts and forest fires to floods and big freezes, extreme weather events are on the rise. But to what extent are these linked to climate change? Just months before the world\u2019s first wind monitoring satellite enters orbit, scientists have finalised a climate model with exceptional resolution, and the new tools will help identify how … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":312,"featured_media":281,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[11,15],"tags":[126,4,79,24,153],"class_list":["post-280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-earth-energy-environment","category-space","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-research","tag-science","tag-weather"],"yoast_head":"\nSupercomputers and space-based laser to help predict extreme weather events - Horizon Magazine Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/280\/supercomputers-and-space-based-laser-to-help-predict-extreme-weather-events\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Supercomputers and space-based laser to help predict extreme weather events\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From droughts and forest fires to floods and big freezes, extreme weather events are on the rise. 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New accurate and reliable weather prediction models could help regions better \u2018anticipate, prepare for, respond to and recover from\u2019 these increasingly extreme weather events. To paraphrase a popular song from the early 2000s, \u2018it\u2019s getting hot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/15HeatWave-1200X675_SoMe.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/15HeatWave-1200X675_SoMe.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/15HeatWave-1200X675_SoMe.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/15HeatWave-1200X675_SoMe.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/15HeatWave-1200X675_SoMe.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":409,"url":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/409\/managing-energy-demand-spikes-with-seasonal-forecasts-of-heatwaves-and-cold-spells\/","url_meta":{"origin":280,"position":4},"title":"Managing energy demand spikes with seasonal forecasts of heatwaves and cold spells","author":"Catherine Collins","date":"August 14, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The impact of heavy droughts, heatwaves and cold spells on energy demand and supplies would be lessened with seasonal climate forecasts that allow energy companies to better predict spikes in usage ahead of time, researchers say. Researchers already have the ability to predict what changes in climate can be expected\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Researchers want to make climate forecasts more accessible to help the energy and other industries better predict spikes in usage.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/08\/enerind.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/08\/enerind.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/08\/enerind.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/08\/enerind.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/08\/enerind.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/08\/enerind.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":640,"url":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/640\/preparing-for-extreme-weather\/","url_meta":{"origin":280,"position":5},"title":"Preparing for extreme weather","author":"Horizon Magazine","date":"January 17, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"By Jonathan O'Callaghan\u00a0 From high winds and heavy rainfall to droughts and plummeting temperatures, people in Europe have already begun to feel the effects of extreme weather. As we get used to this new reality, scientists are investigating how it will affect how we get around and whether our infrastructure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Image credit - FADA CATEC","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/01\/vlcsnap-2018-11-23-06h48m12s191.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/01\/vlcsnap-2018-11-23-06h48m12s191.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/01\/vlcsnap-2018-11-23-06h48m12s191.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/01\/vlcsnap-2018-11-23-06h48m12s191.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/01\/vlcsnap-2018-11-23-06h48m12s191.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2019\/01\/vlcsnap-2018-11-23-06h48m12s191.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/312"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=280"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/281"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}