{"id":3354,"date":"2025-12-17T15:15:57","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T15:15:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/?p=3354"},"modified":"2025-12-17T15:15:57","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T15:15:57","slug":"researchers-reveal-how-climate-change-is-shaping-decisions-to-move-or-stay-put","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/3354\/researchers-reveal-how-climate-change-is-shaping-decisions-to-move-or-stay-put\/","title":{"rendered":"Researchers reveal how climate change is shaping decisions to move \u2013 or stay put"},"content":{"rendered":"

As climate change becomes a major driver of migration, EU-funded researchers are listening to affected communities to help support fairer policies for those most at risk.<\/p>\n

By<\/em> Andrew Dunne<\/p>\n

Climate change is already reshaping where and how people live, from farming villages to coastal towns. Professor Fran\u00e7ois Gemenne, one of Europe\u2019s foremost specialists on climate migration, has spent the past 20 years studying how environmental changes are influencing people\u2019s decisions to change where they live.<\/p>\n

When he began this work, climate-induced migration was still a niche topic. \u201cPeople would often ask me about bird or salmon migration. I had to explain that I was focusing on people,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Gemenne, a professor at the University of Li\u00e8ge in Belgium, was among the first to link human migration to rising temperatures and sea levels. Two decades on, the issue has moved into the mainstream.<\/p>\n

He now co-directs the university\u2019s Hugo Observatory, a research centre dedicated to understanding how environmental change affects population movements \u2013 and how societies can respond.<\/p>\n

Going beyond the climate model<\/strong><\/p>\n

With support from the EU, Gemenne led a four-year international research initiative called HABITABLE that examined the realities of climate migration today.<\/p>\n

The project, which concluded at the end of 2024, brought together leading climate migration researchers from across Europe, Africa and Thailand. They combined household surveys, interviews and focus groups with expert discussions to understand how people perceive and respond to climate risks.<\/p>\n

Their findings show that awareness of climate\u2011related migration is growing \u2013 and that many Europeans now see it as a problem they could face themselves.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhereas climate migration was seen as an issue affecting small islands or Alaska, many Europeans now consider themselves at risk, too,\u201d said Gemenne.<\/p>\n

The Obs’COP<\/a> survey \u2013 an annual international climate opinion survey conducted by EDF, France\u2019s national energy company, and Ipsos \u2013 reflects this shift. Covering 30 countries across the globe, it tracks how public concern, perceptions and attitudes toward climate change are evolving worldwide.<\/p>\n

The survey found that more than one in five people in France think they may have to leave home in the next decade because of climate change. Yet decisions to move or remain are often more complex than climate models alone suggest.<\/p>\n

Social tipping points<\/strong><\/p>\n

Most climate-migration models focus on physical thresholds such as temperature or sea-level rises to predict displacement. The HABITABLE researchers introduced a new concept called social tipping points \u2013 moments when decisions by some households trigger wider community movements.<\/p>\n

When repeated crop failures or floods hit, for example, several families may decide to leave. Their departure could prompt neighbours to follow, potentially tipping an entire village toward higher levels of migration.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are real discrepancies between public debate and empirical realities for climate refugees,\u201d Gemenne said.<\/p>\n

He emphasised that\u00a0people\u00a0respond very differently to climate pressures depending on their economic, social, or even psychological resilience.<\/p>\n

\u201cUnderstanding those factors can explain why similar events produce different migration outcomes in different places,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Local voices from Ghana and the Mekong\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

In Ghana, the project examined climate-migration decisions in the country\u2019s northern savannah regions. Led by Professor Mumuni Abu of the University of Ghana, the team examined how environmental stressors push people to migrate \u2013 and how migration reshapes local communities.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe examined how climate impacts and migration decisions vary by gender, age and social class,\u201d Abu said. His team\u2019s findings helped local authorities and NGOs design more inclusive policies, particularly for women and young people. They also raised public awareness of the challenges through theatre and storytelling projects in schools.<\/p>\n

In southeast Asia, the HABITABLE team studied communities along the Mekong River in Thailand, on the border with Laos. Sara Vigil, senior research fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute in Bangkok, led the work on gender and social equity.<\/p>\n

Research with communities along the border showed how climate stressors and declining natural resources are reshaping livelihoods and mobility. It also highlighted local responses, including community-led water monitoring and grassroots mobilisation.<\/p>\n

Vigil\u2019s team found that broader pressures, such as debt, declining fish stocks and limited livelihoods, especially for women, often influenced migration decisions more strongly than climate factors alone.<\/p>\n

Shifting the conversation on climate migration<\/strong><\/p>\n

Overall, Vigil said, the HABITABLE work helped broaden the conversation from simply identifying who is vulnerable to asking why certain people and places are becoming more vulnerable.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe impacts of climate change on migration are shaped by deeper structural inequalities, including gender roles, uneven access to resources and entrenched social hierarchies,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Drawing on these findings, Gemenne urges caution when discussing the future of places increasingly described as \u201cuninhabitable\u201d due to climate change.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the impacts of climate change are increasingly real, I\u2019ve seen places where people consider their home uninhabitable, not because of direct experience, but because they\u2019ve been told so. We need a more nuanced conversation,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

For Gemenne, the HABITABLE research highlights three key lessons for thinking about future climate-migration dynamics and ways to respond.<\/p>\n

\u201cFirst, people\u2019s perceptions matter. Second, social tipping points provide a much richer framework than traditional models. And third, equitable research partnerships between Europe, Africa and Asia ensure local knowledge informs global decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n

From research to policy impact<\/strong><\/p>\n

The findings of the HABITABLE team are now featured in a global exhibition on\u00a0Migrations and Climate<\/a>,\u00a0<\/em>hosted until 5 April 2026 at the National Museum for the History of Immigration in Paris, France. The exhibition brings the research to a wider audience and highlights its relevance for real-world decisions.<\/p>\n

Gemenne expressed hope that this more nuanced approach to climate migration will have a lasting impact and support local authorities as they design adaptation and migration policies.<\/p>\n

\u201cI hope HABITABLE can become a living study, carried forward by many local partners, shaping decisions long into the future,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Research in this article was funded by the EU\u2019s Horizon Programme. The views of the interviewees don\u2019t necessarily reflect those of the European Commission. <\/em><\/p>\n

\u200bThis article was originally published\u202fin\u00a0Horizon<\/a>\u00a0the EU Research and Innovation Magazine.<\/em><\/p>\n

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