{"id":590,"date":"2018-12-07T10:29:31","date_gmt":"2018-12-07T10:29:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/horizon.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=590"},"modified":"2018-12-07T10:29:31","modified_gmt":"2018-12-07T10:29:31","slug":"earths-magnetic-poles-could-start-to-flip-what-happens-then","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/590\/earths-magnetic-poles-could-start-to-flip-what-happens-then\/","title":{"rendered":"Earth\u2019s magnetic poles could start to flip. What happens then?"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Jonathan O’Callaghan<\/p>\n

As Earth’s magnetic shield fails, so do its satellites. First, our communications satellites in the highest orbits go down. Next, astronauts in low-Earth orbit can no longer phone home. And finally, cosmic rays start to bombard every human on Earth.<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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This is a possibility that we may start to face not in the next million years, not in the next thousand, but in the next hundred. If Earth\u2019s magnetic field were to decay significantly, it could collapse altogether and flip polarity \u2013 changing magnetic north to south and vice versa. The consequences of this process could be dire for our planet.<\/p>\n

Most worryingly, we may be headed right for this scenario.<\/p>\n

\u2018The geomagnetic field has been decaying for the last 3,000 years,\u2019 said Dr Nicolas Thouveny from the European Centre for Research and Teaching of Environmental Geosciences (CEREGE) in Aix-en-Provence, France. \u2018If it continues to fall down at this rate, in less than one millennium we will be in a critical (period).\u2019<\/p>\n

Dr Thouveny is one of the principal investigators on the five-year\u00a0EDIFICE<\/a>\u00a0project, which has been running since 2014. Together with his colleagues, he has been investigating the history of Earth\u2019s magnetic field, including when it has reversed in the past, and when it might again.<\/p>\n

Cosmic rays<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our planet\u2019s magnetic field is predominantly created by the flow of liquid iron inside the core. It has always been a feature of our planet, but it has flipped in polarity repeatedly throughout Earth\u2019s history. Each time it flips \u2013 up to 100 times in the past 20 million years, while the reversal can take about 1,000 years to complete \u2013 it leaves\u00a0fossilised magnetisation<\/a>\u00a0in rocks on Earth.<\/p>\n

By taking cores – or columns – of sediments from the sea floor, like a long straw that can extend down up to 300 metres with the help of a drill, we can look back in time and see when these reversals occurred. Dr Thouveny and his team looked at two particular forms of elements that allowed them to probe the history of our planet\u2019s magnetic field in greater detail.<\/p>\n

For a polarity reversal to occur, the magnetic field needs to weaken by about 90% to a threshold level. This process can take thousands of years, and during this time, the lack of a protective magnetic shield around our planet allows more cosmic rays \u2013 high-energy particles from elsewhere in the universe \u2013 to hit us.<\/p>\n

When this happens, these cosmic rays collide with more and more atoms in our atmosphere, such as nitrogen and oxygen. This produces variants of elements called cosmogenic isotopes, such as carbon-14 and beryllium-10, which fall to the surface. And by studying the quantities of these in cores, we can see when polarity reversals took place.<\/p>\n

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\u2018The geomagnetic field has been decaying for the last 3,000 years.\u2019<\/p>\n

Dr Nicolas Thouveny, CEREGE<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

The last reversal occurred between 772,000 and 774,000 years ago. Since then, the field has almost reversed 15 times, called an excursion, dropping in strength significantly but not quite reaching the threshold needed before rising again. This is when we are most at risk – as the field decays and then recovers its strength. The last excursion occurred 40,000 years ago, and evidence suggests we are heading in that direction again.<\/p>\n

\u2018The geomagnetic field has been losing 30 percent of its intensity in the last 3,000 years,\u2019 said Dr Thouveny. \u2018From this value, we predict it will drop to near zero in a few centuries or a millennia.\u2019<\/p>\n

Satellites<\/strong><\/p>\n

Today, we can already see the effects of a weakened magnetic field on our satellites in orbit.<\/p>\n

In the Atlantic Ocean between South America and Africa, there is a vast region of Earth\u2019s magnetic field that is about three times weaker than the field strength at the poles.<\/p>\n

This is called the\u00a0South Atlantic Anomaly<\/a>\u00a0(SAA), and it\u2019s the focus of the\u00a0CoreSat<\/a>\u00a0project being led by Professor Chris Finlay from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) near Copenhagen. Using data from multiple satellites, including the European Space Agency\u2019s (ESA) three Swarm satellites launched in 2013, this project is trying to figure out what is causing the SAA.<\/p>\n

\u2018This is a region where we see that satellites consistently (experience) electronic failures,\u2019 said Prof. Finlay. \u2018And we don\u2019t understand where this weak field region is coming from, what\u2019s producing it, and how it might change in the future.\u2019<\/p>\n

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\"The
The Earth’s magnetic field has been weakening over the South Atlantic (blue region). Image credit – ESA\/DTU Space<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Scientists first noticed the SAA in the 1950s, and since then it has decreased in strength by a further 6%, as well as moving closer to the west. \u2018(There) hasn\u2019t really been any convincing explanation of it,\u2019 said Prof. Finlay, adding that scientists haven\u2019t been able to predict how it\u2019s going to alter.<\/p>\n

The CoreSat project is hoping to change all that, using the most detailed data available yet to study the properties of the magnetic field here and how it shifts over time. By probing the SAA, the team are hoping to see what\u2019s going on inside Earth\u2019s core that might be causing it.<\/p>\n

One possibility is that there could be a\u00a0vast anticyclone<\/a>\u00a0in the southern portion of Earth\u2019s liquid metal outer core, which may be pushing out the magnetic field from the South Atlantic region. Another possibility is that the magnetic field in this region is pointing the wrong way \u2013 in effect, there\u2019s a mini-polarity reversal taking place.<\/p>\n

The SAA gives us a direct look at how a weakened magnetic field can affect satellites, as numerous spacecraft have reported electronic malfunctions when flying over this region as they are hit by cosmic rays. But it\u2019s unclear at the moment if the SAA has any relation to the Earth\u2019s magnetic field flipping in polarity, which is also something Prof. Finlay and his team will investigate.<\/p>\n

\u2018In some simulations you see features like the SAA growing during a pole reversal,\u2019 he said. \u2018It\u2019s not necessarily the case, but it wouldn\u2019t be a surprise if something like this was involved in a magnetic reversal.\u2019<\/p>\n

A glimpse<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the SAA just might give us a glimpse of what is to come in the near future. If\u00a0trends continue<\/a>, our planet’s magnetic field could reverse again in one or two millennia. Prior to that, the field may continue to weaken, and within a century we could be faced with serious problems.<\/p>\n

\u2018The decrease in geomagnetic field is much more important and dramatic than the reversal,\u2019 said Dr Thouveny. \u2018It is very important to understand if the present field will decay to zero in the next century, because we will have to prepare.\u2019<\/p>\n

Originally published on Horizon<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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