{"id":619,"date":"2019-01-07T14:29:25","date_gmt":"2019-01-07T14:29:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/horizon.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=619"},"modified":"2019-01-07T14:29:25","modified_gmt":"2019-01-07T14:29:25","slug":"age-and-foaming-how-to-predict-when-a-volcano-will-erupt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/619\/age-and-foaming-how-to-predict-when-a-volcano-will-erupt\/","title":{"rendered":"Age and foaming: how to predict when a volcano will erupt"},"content":{"rendered":"

The eruption of a volcano can have devastating consequences \u2013\u00a0killing people and destroying livelihoods, as well as releasing vast amounts of ash into the sky that disrupts air travel and alters the climate. Knowing what goes on underground, however, would facilitate better warnings for when an eruption will occur \u2013 and help save lives while keeping damage to a minimum.<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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\u2018Understanding volcanoes is an international effort. The impact of eruptions does not stop at borders,\u2019 said volcanologist Dr Catherine Annen of the University Savoie Mont Blanc in France.<\/p>\n

Though relatively small, the eruption of the Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull volcano in southern Iceland in 2010 sticks in many people\u2019s memories. Its drifting plume of ash led to the widespread cancellation of flights across Europe.<\/p>\n

Today, other, bigger volcanoes seem to be on the brink of eruption. Seismic observations suggest that Italy\u2019s Campi Flegrei, a supervolcano close to millions of people living in and around Naples,\u00a0is amassing magma in a dangerous \u2018hot zone\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But such observations only give rough forecasts \u2013 usually days, weeks or months in advance \u2013 of when a volcano will erupt. \u2018The uncertainty arises from the fact that we cannot see what is happening underground,\u2019 said Dr Annen.<\/p>\n

Scientists such as Dr Annen already have a fair idea of what goes on. Being less dense than surrounding rock, magma from deep within the Earth can rise up, potentially finding an outlet at thinner points \u2013\u00a0volcanoes \u2013\u00a0in the planet\u2019s crust.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Foaming and freezing<\/strong><\/p>\n

Magma cools as it rises, and if we are lucky it will freeze, or solidify, before ever erupting. On the other hand, the pressure close to the surface drops too, and this liberates dissolved gases, which increase the chances of a foaming explosion \u2013 a bit like opening a shaken fizzy drink bottle.<\/p>\n

Dr Stephan Kolzenburg, a volcanologist at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, said: \u2018These two processes \u2013 foaming and freezing \u2013 compete, and depending on which one wins, the volcano will or will not erupt.\u2019<\/p>\n

The foaming and solidification processes also lie at the heart of mathematical volcano models. Through a research project called\u00a0DYNAVOLC<\/a>, Dr Kolzenburg hopes that by better understanding the competition between the two processes, and by linking them to geophysical signals recorded on the Earth\u2019s surface, he will be able to improve the hazard maps depicting the areas most likely to be affected by volcanic eruptions.<\/p>\n

Although his research project only began in April, it has already yielded results. In one study, Dr Kolzenburg found that the faster magma and lava flows, the faster it solidifies \u2013 knowledge that could improve the volcano models.<\/p>\n

Not all volcanoes behave in the same way, however. Having had longer to store magma, old volcanoes tend to be hotter than young volcanoes, and this determines, for instance, the level of ground swelling close to eruption.<\/p>\n

Volcano\u2019s age<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dr Annen is interested in how a volcano\u2019s age affects this and other potential warning signals. Through a project called\u00a0MAGMATS<\/a>, she is simulating on computers the interaction of magma and gases to understand how key volcano parameters change over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.<\/p>\n

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\u2018Understanding volcanoes is an international effort.\u2019<\/p>\n

Dr Catherine Annen, University Savoie Mont Blanc, France<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Such parameters include temperature, gas content and magma content \u2013 none of which vary in a simple, linear fashion with one another. \u2018Simulating the processes is challenging,\u2019 she said.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the work should help the prediction of an eruption to be better tailored to a volcano\u2019s age \u2013\u00a0and thus more accurate. Dr Annen hopes to apply her findings to four active volcanoes: Campi Flegrei in Italy, Uturunku in Bolivia, Merapi in Indonesia and Krafla in Iceland.<\/p>\n

\u2018I would like to know if there are large volumes of magma ready to erupt close to the surface \u2013 or if, on the contrary, any eruption must first involve new magma transfer from deeper levels,\u2019 she said. Ultimately, she hopes that \u2018any decision about evacuation will be better informed.\u2019<\/p>\n

The research in this article was funded by the EU. If you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.<\/em><\/p>\n

Originally published on Horizon<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The eruption of a volcano can have devastating consequences \u2013\u00a0killing people and destroying livelihoods, as well as releasing vast amounts of ash into the sky that disrupts air travel and alters the climate. Knowing what goes on underground, however, would facilitate better warnings for when an eruption will occur \u2013 and help save lives while … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":311,"featured_media":620,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,112],"tags":[4,79,24,129,28],"class_list":["post-619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-earth-energy-environment","category-ict","tag-environment","tag-research","tag-science","tag-security","tag-technology"],"yoast_head":"\nAge and foaming: how to predict when a volcano will erupt - Horizon Magazine Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/619\/age-and-foaming-how-to-predict-when-a-volcano-will-erupt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Age and foaming: how to predict when a volcano will erupt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The eruption of a volcano can have devastating consequences \u2013\u00a0killing people and destroying livelihoods, as well as releasing vast amounts of ash into the sky that disrupts air travel and alters the climate. 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Its gas and ash\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/3volcano-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/3volcano-scaled.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/3volcano-scaled.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/3volcano-scaled.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/3volcano-scaled.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/08\/3volcano-scaled.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1589,"url":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/1589\/unravelling-the-when-where-and-how-of-volcanic-eruptions\/","url_meta":{"origin":619,"position":1},"title":"Unravelling the when, where and how of volcanic eruptions","author":"Sandrine Ceurstemont","date":"January 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"There are\u00a0about 1,500 potentially active volcanoes worldwide\u00a0and about 50 eruptions occur each year. But it\u2019s still difficult to predict when and how these eruptions will happen or how they\u2019ll unfold. Now, new insight into the physical processes inside volcanoes are giving scientists a better understanding of their behaviour, which could\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/01\/1024px-Ciudad_de_Toluca_Nevado_de_Toluca.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/01\/1024px-Ciudad_de_Toluca_Nevado_de_Toluca.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/01\/1024px-Ciudad_de_Toluca_Nevado_de_Toluca.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/01\/1024px-Ciudad_de_Toluca_Nevado_de_Toluca.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1274,"url":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/1274\/how-speech-recognition-techniques-are-helping-to-predict-volcanoes-behaviour\/","url_meta":{"origin":619,"position":2},"title":"How speech recognition techniques are helping to predict volcanoes\u2019 behaviour","author":"Horizon Magazine","date":"May 5, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"By Sarah Wild Dr Luciano Zuccarello grew up in the shadow of Mount Etna, an active volcano on the Italian island of Sicily. Farms and orchards ring the lower slopes of the volcano, where the fertile soil is ideal for agriculture. But the volcano looms large in the life of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Health"","block_context":{"text":"Health","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/health\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Ear tags with a wireless radio frequency identification antenna along with a smart robotic feeder can tell farmers every time a cow goes to feed and what dose of mineral supplements it receives. 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In 2016 and early 2017, a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/09\/amatrice.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/09\/amatrice.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/09\/amatrice.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/09\/amatrice.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/09\/amatrice.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/09\/amatrice.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":182,"url":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/182\/warmer-saltier-polar-water-could-change-global-ocean-currents\/","url_meta":{"origin":619,"position":5},"title":"Warmer, saltier polar water could change global ocean currents","author":"Catherine Collins","date":"March 8, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Melting ice shelves are changing the ocean\u2019s chemistry at the South Pole and the result could be a change in global currents and increased glacial melt, according to scientists who are creating maps to feed into climate change models. At the North and South Poles, cold dense water sinks, powering\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Earth, Energy & Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Earth, Energy & Environment","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/category\/earth-energy-environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"When ice shelves melt, they dump freshwater into the sea which lightens the salty water.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/03\/Antarctica-coastal-mountains.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/03\/Antarctica-coastal-mountains.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/03\/Antarctica-coastal-mountains.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/03\/Antarctica-coastal-mountains.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2018\/03\/Antarctica-coastal-mountains.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/311"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/620"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/horizon\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}