{"id":210,"date":"2014-02-10T19:18:05","date_gmt":"2014-02-10T19:18:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshmitteldorf.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=210"},"modified":"2014-02-18T02:11:37","modified_gmt":"2014-02-18T02:11:37","slug":"a-heavy-hitter-weighs-in-against-evolutionary-theory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/joshmitteldorf\/2014\/02\/10\/a-heavy-hitter-weighs-in-against-evolutionary-theory\/","title":{"rendered":"A Heavy Hitter Weighs In Against Evolutionary Theory"},"content":{"rendered":"<p dir=\"ltr\">Demography is the statistical study of population age structures, or the study of aging and fertility through population statistics. \u00a0It\u2019s not deep math, but it definitely attracts people who love numbers. \u00a0The world\u2019s formost demographer is <a href=\"http:\/\/user.demogr.mpg.de\/jwv\/\">James Vaupel<\/a>, an American who has been working at the Max Planck Inst in Germany most of his career. \u00a0Annette Baudisch is a brilliantly creative protege of Vaupel, who has come into her own in the last decade<a href=\"#FN1\">*<\/a><a id=\"back1\"><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The point of this is that when such people declare that evolutionary theory doesn\u2019t work, we ought to be listening. \u00a0We the evolutionary theorists, we the gerontologists, and we who simply seek a path to a longer, healthier life, and we who have been influenced, perhaps unawarely, by tacit assumptions about evolution.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong>Essay in Science a year ago, Survey in Nature last month<\/strong><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Last month, these two world-class demographers <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v505\/n7482\/full\/nature12789.html\" target=\"_blank\">published a cross-species study<\/a> correlating fertility with the rate of aging, and they report results that are deeply at odds with the predictions of evolutionary theory. \u00a0They are not shy about saying so.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The classic evolutionary theories of aging provide the theoretical framework that has guided aging research for 60 years. Are the theories consistent with recent evidence?<\/p>\n<p>At the heart of the theories lies the observation that the old count less than the young: Unfavorable traits are weeded out by evolution more slowly at higher ages; traits that are beneficial early in life are selected for despite late life costs; and resources are used to enhance reproduction at younger ages instead of maintaining the body at ages that do not matter much for evolution. The decline in the force of selection with age is viewed as the fundamental cause of aging. It is why, starting at reproductive maturity, senescence\u2014increases in susceptibility to death and decreases in fertility\u2014should be inevitable in all multicellular species capable of repeated breeding. Yet, this is not the case. Increasing, constant, and decreasing mortality (and fertility) patterns (see the figure) are three generic variants that compose the rich diversity of life trajectories observed in nature. For vertebrates, reproductive trajectories are commonly hump-shaped, and death rates may start rising much later than reproductive maturity. Thus, a new view on the fundamental causes of aging is needed to explain the clash of theory and data. <em>\u00a0[from a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/content\/338\/6107\/618.full\">2012 Science essay<\/a> by the same authors]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">This is the kind of condensed academic prose that makes scientific communication so efficient to specialists and so opaque to anyone on the outside trying to figure out what\u2019s going on. \u00a0They have captured the core of three evolutionary theories that are currently considered acceptable. \u00a0(If you are already familiar with them, you will recognize what they&#8217;re talking about; if you would like more detailed accounts of the three theories and their failures, I have written about that <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/User:Mitteldorf\/Evolution_of_aging\">here<\/a>.) \u00a0They go on to say that aging in nature has a richness and diversity that these simple theories do not begin to address. \u00a0\u201ctheories to explain the ultimate evolutionary causes of the varieties of ageing&#8230;are in their infancy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Baudisch pioneered the study across species of different shapes of life history curves, regardless of the time scale on which they unfold. \u00a0In other words, some species have life plans that unfold over days, and others over decades. \u00a0Let\u2019s ignore that and stretch out the time axis so that they all fit in the same plot. \u00a0Some species (e.g. modern man) have a high rate of survival right up to the end, and then everyone dies in a narrow range of old age; while other species tend to die at a steady rate, unrelated to age, and for some they are actually less likely to die the older they get. \u00a0This last case seems strange to us. \u00a0Baudisch and Vaupel coined the term \u201cnegative senesence\u201d, but it doesn\u2019t have to look like Benjamin Button. \u00a0Just think of a pine tree that gets larger and stronger over the decades, and thus more resistant to a drought or a fire or a windstorm, thus less and less likely to die with each passing year.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">(You can <a href=\"http:\/\/mathforum.org\/~josh\/images\/Vaupel-Science-2014-Life-Histories.png\" target=\"_blank\">blow up the figure below<\/a>\u00a0to view details.) \u00a0The blue line plots fertility over a lifetime: \u00a0how many offspring are produced per unit time; the red line plots mortality: what is the probability of an individual dying before the next year or the next day? \u00a0These many different plots represent the diversity of different patterns of aging in nature. \u00a0The graphs are all stretched out or compressed in time so that each box contains one lifetime, whether that be a day or a decade.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/mathforum.org\/~josh\/images\/Vaupel-Science-2014-Life-Histories.png\"><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/zfeRTQBRgDTJiEtKV-_we1cL3fwfTCDbX9uHMmgPZyzo6jCUX0KLuqPU8dnYA0EruloP1t9E3PK0Ng_G5323V7b3FO-IjCn0brfYMm6chStzpQ49euMpwgkR\" width=\"335px;\" height=\"600px;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The top row codifies the life plan that is most familiar to us, because it is ours. \u00a0Fertility peaks in early life, then declines. \u00a0For females, it declines to zero. \u00a0Mortality is modest for a long while, then it climbs steeply and everyone dies. \u00a0This is the story we take for granted. \u00a0It is the form of aging shared by humans, guppies, and certain sea birds.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The next line shows life plans that are similar, but where mortality rises more slowly, so that age of death is spread out over time. \u00a0This row contains some familiar mammals like deer, lions, and orcas, but it also contains water fleas and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/2012\/11\/18\/bdelloid-rotifers-sex-dna_n_2152426.html\">bdelloid rotifers<\/a>, microscopic creatures famous (at least to biologists) for their chastity.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Further down are stranger and less familiar life plans, including those where fertility rises as mortality falls through most of the life span. According to evolutionary theory, metabolisms aren\u2019t supposed to be able to do this. \u00a0The whole reason for aging is (according to theory) the necessity for compromise. \u00a0Some organisms can have their cake and eat it. \u00a0(Would it be mixing metaphors to call this an evolutionary free lunch?) \u00a0When theory accounts for aging in other species as a sacrifice of longevity for fertility, the story rings hollow. \u00a0Why are some species but not others compelled to this compromise?<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Of special significance is post-reproductive life span. \u00a0Human females go right on living after they have lost their fertility. \u00a0This is supposed to be explained by the need to care for her grandchildren. \u00a0But in this chart are several other species that also outlive their fertility, including <a href=\"http:\/\/journals.cambridge.org\/action\/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&amp;aid=259141\">elephants and ground squirrels<\/a> but also worms and guppies that don\u2019t care for their young at all, let alone their grandchildren.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">This poses a big problem for evolutionary theories of aging, because maintaining the body through an extended life span is always presumed to be costly in one way or another &#8211; that\u2019s why the body skimps on the job, and the body is permitted to deteriorate with age. \u00a0Why, then, would the body take the trouble to preserve itself for a time when it was unable to reproduce, useless to the species and invisible to evolution? \u00a0&#8220;There should be little or no postreproductive\u00a0period in the normal life-cycle\u00a0of any species.&#8221;, predicted George Williams in\u00a0his seminal paper (<a href=\"http:\/\/sageke.sciencemag.org\/cgi\/content\/abstract\/2001\/1\/cp13\" target=\"_blank\">1957<\/a>) which has inspired most modern thought on the subject. \u00a0(<a href=\"http:\/\/mathforum.org\/~josh\/PRLS4Oikos.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">I have written<\/a> about this topic, suggesting that the post-reproductive segment of the population provides a stabilizing buffer in times of famine, helping to guard against extinction.<a>**<\/a><a id=\"back2\"><\/a>)<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong>The bottom line<\/strong><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The bottom line is that nature has been able to do pretty much anything she wants with the metabolism of aging, and the trajectory of mortality that comes from that metabolism. \u00a0Most of the evolutionary theory on the subject is based on the idea that natural selection could never affirmatively choose aging if there were a choice. \u00a0Aging is bad for the fitness of the organism that suffers aging, and theory says that natural selection should always work against aging. \u00a0If most living things suffer decline with age, leading to death, this must have taken place despite natural selection. \u00a0There must be some genetic constraints, or physical limitations, or conditions beyond control of the genome.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">This survey of Baudisch and Vaupel tells a different story.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">For fifteen years now, I\u2019ve been saying that the evolutionary theory of aging doesn\u2019t work, and that it\u2019s high time to stop making excuses for the old theory, to adopt a new theory that fits better with empirical reality. \u00a0I have argued from experiments and from field surveys and from general knowledge and from logic, and I have found many people who agree, and maybe a few who have been turned around by my presentation. \u00a0But I don\u2019t have the stature that would attract a large readership, or compel anyone to take my word for it. \u00a0Maybe they\u2019ll listen to Baudisch and Vaupel.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">* I first became aware of Baudisch in 2004. \u00a0One of the most common of ancient human follies is to imagine that the way things are is the way things must be. \u00a0William D Hamilton &#8211; a biologist smart enough to know better &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/0022519366901846\">published in 1966<\/a> his \u201cproof\u201d from fundamental precepts of evolution that all living things must decline with age. \u00a0In a paper provocatively titled, \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S004058090400022X\">negative senescence<\/a>\u201d, Baudisch and Vaupel surveyed a number of animals and plants that don\u2019t decline with age &#8211; quite the opposite, they continue to get larger, stronger, and ever more fertile. \u00a0\u201cNegative senescence\u201d. \u00a0They even included their own \u201cproof\u201d that aging was impossible, and that all living things ought to grow ever stronger and more fertile.<br \/>\n<a href=\"#back1\">[back to text]<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"FN2\"><\/a><br \/>\n** In this article, I have proposed that population stability is a major part of fitness in nature. \u00a0Populations that swing too wildly up and down are in danger of extinction, and it makes sense that such extinctions are a form of Darwinian selection, and they would have left their mark on the genome. \u00a0In the case of post-reproductive life span, here\u2019s how it would work: \u00a0Sometimes there\u2019s plenty of food, and the population is expanding on a trajectory that\u2019s going to lead to overpopulation and a crash. \u00a0Then it\u2019s a good thing to have these older, infertile adults around, because they eat up some of the food, but they don\u2019t contribute to population growth, while the population is growing too fast already. \u00a0At other times, food may be scarce and the population is shrinking. \u00a0Then the post-reproductive population will be the first to go, because they are old and weak. \u00a0They are expendable, from a demographic perspective, because when they disappear there\u2019s no loss to the population\u2019s potential for growth, but there is a benefit when competition for scarce food is reduced. \u00a0This is the sense in which a post-reproductive population can provide a buffer, protecting against steep population fluctuations and potential extinction. \u00a0[<a href=\"http:\/\/mathforum.org\/~josh\/PRLS4Oikos.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Link to article in Oikos<\/a>] <a href=\"#back2\">[back to text]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Demography is the statistical study of population age structures, or the study of aging and fertility through population statistics. \u00a0It\u2019s not deep math, but it definitely attracts people who love numbers. \u00a0The world\u2019s formost demographer is James Vaupel, an American who has been working at the Max Planck Inst in Germany most of his career. &#8230; <a title=\"A Heavy Hitter Weighs In Against Evolutionary Theory\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/joshmitteldorf\/2014\/02\/10\/a-heavy-hitter-weighs-in-against-evolutionary-theory\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about A Heavy Hitter Weighs In Against Evolutionary Theory\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":65,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.6 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Heavy Hitter Weighs In Against Evolutionary Theory - Josh Mitteldorf<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/joshmitteldorf\/2014\/02\/10\/a-heavy-hitter-weighs-in-against-evolutionary-theory\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Heavy Hitter Weighs In Against Evolutionary Theory\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Demography is the statistical study of population age structures, or the study of aging and fertility through population statistics. \u00a0It\u2019s not deep math, but it definitely attracts people who love numbers. \u00a0The world\u2019s formost demographer is James Vaupel, an American who has been working at the Max Planck Inst in Germany most of his career. ... 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The surprising fact that our bodies are genetically programmed to age and to die offers an enormous opportunity for medical intervention. It may be that therapies to slow the progress of aging need not repair or regenerate anything, but only need to interfere with an existing program of self-destruction. Mitteldorf has taught a weekly yoga class for thirty years. He is an advocate for vigorous self care, including exercise, meditation and caloric restriction. After earning a PhD in astrophysicist, Mitteldorf moved to evolutionary biology as a primary field in 1996. He has taught at Harvard, Berkeley, Bryn Mawr, LaSalle and Temple University. He is presently affiliated with MIT as a visiting scholar. In private life, Mitteldorf is an advocate for election integrity as well as public health. He is an avid amateur musician, playing piano in chamber groups, French horn in community orchestras. His two daughters are among the first children adopted from China in the mid-1980s. Much to the surprise of evolutionary biologists, genetic experiments indicate that aging has been selected as an adaptation for its own sake. This poses a conundrum: the impact of aging on individual fitness is wholly negative, so aging must be regarded as a kind of evolutionary altruism. Unlike other forms of evolutionary altruism, aging offers benefits to the community that are weak, and not well focussed on near kin of the altruist. This makes the mechanism challenging to understand and to model. more at http:\\\/\\\/mathforum.org\\\/~josh\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/AgingAdvice.org\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/scienceblog.com\\\/joshmitteldorf\\\/author\\\/joshmitteldorf\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"A Heavy Hitter Weighs In Against Evolutionary Theory - Josh Mitteldorf","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/joshmitteldorf\/2014\/02\/10\/a-heavy-hitter-weighs-in-against-evolutionary-theory\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"A Heavy Hitter Weighs In Against Evolutionary Theory","og_description":"Demography is the statistical study of population age structures, or the study of aging and fertility through population statistics. \u00a0It\u2019s not deep math, but it definitely attracts people who love numbers. \u00a0The world\u2019s formost demographer is James Vaupel, an American who has been working at the Max Planck Inst in Germany most of his career. ... 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The surprising fact that our bodies are genetically programmed to age and to die offers an enormous opportunity for medical intervention. It may be that therapies to slow the progress of aging need not repair or regenerate anything, but only need to interfere with an existing program of self-destruction. Mitteldorf has taught a weekly yoga class for thirty years. He is an advocate for vigorous self care, including exercise, meditation and caloric restriction. After earning a PhD in astrophysicist, Mitteldorf moved to evolutionary biology as a primary field in 1996. He has taught at Harvard, Berkeley, Bryn Mawr, LaSalle and Temple University. He is presently affiliated with MIT as a visiting scholar. In private life, Mitteldorf is an advocate for election integrity as well as public health. He is an avid amateur musician, playing piano in chamber groups, French horn in community orchestras. His two daughters are among the first children adopted from China in the mid-1980s. Much to the surprise of evolutionary biologists, genetic experiments indicate that aging has been selected as an adaptation for its own sake. This poses a conundrum: the impact of aging on individual fitness is wholly negative, so aging must be regarded as a kind of evolutionary altruism. Unlike other forms of evolutionary altruism, aging offers benefits to the community that are weak, and not well focussed on near kin of the altruist. 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