{"id":414,"date":"2015-08-13T00:28:07","date_gmt":"2015-08-13T00:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joshmitteldorf.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=414"},"modified":"2015-08-14T13:32:36","modified_gmt":"2015-08-14T13:32:36","slug":"orcas-and-elephants-aging-and-the-taboo-subject-of-population-regulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/joshmitteldorf\/2015\/08\/13\/orcas-and-elephants-aging-and-the-taboo-subject-of-population-regulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Orcas and Elephants&#8211;Aging and the Taboo Subject of Population Regulation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">One species has come to sit atop the biosphere in much of the world, to dominate and transform the world\u2019s ecosystems. \u00a0A complex of environmental crises looms, and they can\u2019t count on evolution to change their genetics fast enough to catch their fall. \u00a0The crisis will have to be negotiated with social agreements. \u00a0Will their political organizations be up to the task of establishing a sustainable culture without a population crash of unthinkable proportions? \u00a0In all the history of life on earth, there is no precedent for this situation.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">&#8230;or maybe there is&#8230;maybe it has happened before that a species has encountered the productive limits of a finite planet, and responded with widespread and peaceful cooperation to avoid ecological collapse.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">My main theoretical contribution to the field of aging research has been the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/joshmitteldorf\/2013\/07\/01\/the-demographic-theory-of-aging\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Demographic Theory of Aging<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. \u00a0It says that aging evolved in order to level the death rate in good times and hard times, so individuals don\u2019t all die at the same time, risking extinction in periods of famine or epidemic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The mathematics of populations is about reproduction in proportion to present numbers. \u00a0This implies either exponential growth or exponential decline. \u00a0Stable ecosystems cannot be built from populations that are growing exponentially or collapsing exponentially; and no animal species can live (for long) without a stable ecosystem.\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">There are two common objections to this simple, straightforward logic. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The first is that evolution doesn\u2019t work like this. \u00a0\u201cEvolution is about one mutation at a time, and either that mutation produces more copies of itself or less copies.\u201d \u00a0My response is that this statement is not a law of nature but a hypothesis. \u00a0It is a\u00a0picture painted not by Darwin, but by\u00a0evolutionary mathematicians of the early 20th century, including R. A. Fisher and J. B. S. Haldane. \u00a0Though this particular model of evolution has been the basis of much theory for the last hundred years, the products of evolution demonstrate that group fitness frequently counts as much as individual fitness.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The second is that animal populations can be stabilized by simple feedback. \u00a0When there is plenty of grass on the plain, the rabbits increase in number; and when there is not enough grass on the plain, the rabbits starve, and their numbers diminish. \u00a0My response is that this process is too violent to produce viable ecosystems. \u00a0The problem is that deaths tend to clump together, and populations overshoot so far that they are bound to vanish to extinction. \u00a0The rabbits keep eating and reproducing as long as there is grass to eat. \u00a0After that final generation of rabbits has eaten the prairie bare, their offspring&#8211;far more numerous even than they&#8211;are born into a world devoid of grass, and they all die. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The tool of my art is computer simulation, (and I wish R. A. Fisher had had computers to support his insight). \u00a0Computer models show consistently that ecosystems relying on starvation to regulate their populations are subject to violent swings. \u00a0In simulations, animal populations will bloom to hundreds of times the level that can be supported in the long run, only to collapse suddenly to extinction. \u00a0The same simulations show that aging is able to stabilize this dynamic. \u00a0Each individual\u2019s death occurs on an independent schedule, so they don\u2019t die all at once, and extinction is avoided. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In the 19th Century, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Rocky_Mountain_locust\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Rocky Mountain Locust<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> was a great success in the American Midwest. \u00a0Huge clouds of ten trillion locusts covered the sky for miles in every direction. \u00a0Locusts fell from the sky and covered the ground, so thick that a man could not walk without crunching them. \u00a0Every green leaf was devoured, and the midwest became a dust bowl. \u00a0The locusts drove themselves extinct, victims of their own spectacular success. \u00a0The last locust was observed in 1902.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Population regulation is an idea that has been considered and decisevly rejected by the mainstream of the evolutionary community. \u00a0The consummate British naturalist V. C. Wynne-Edwards published (in 1962) a <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/content\/138\/3548\/1389.2.citation\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">book about natural, evolved population regulation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> that was at once the denouement of his life work and the end of his career. \u00a0His theory was ridiculed and dismissed, and two generations of evolutionary scientists could not breathe the words \u201cpopulation regulation\u201d or \u201cgroup selection\u201d for fear they would suffer the same fate. \u00a0But these ideas have begun to resurface in the 21st Century, and in fact it is impossible to understand natural ecologies without them.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Stabilizing population dynamics with aging&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The lion cannot chase down a gazelle in the prime of life&#8211;not fast enough. \u00a0We might imagine a time in the past when some proud, tragic lion evolved enough speed that he could easily catch any gazelle in the herd. \u00a0The genes that allowed her to do this enabled her to provide more meat for her offspring, and they flourished and crowded out the slower lions as the lion population grew. \u00a0Plentiful food assured that the population of super-lions grew and grew, until the herd of gazelles was diminished, the herd was picked clean, and the lions died all at once. \u00a0This race of lions disappeared. \u00a0Elsewhere, the lions that were just a little slower continued to live sustainably with their prey. \u00a0What we are left with is a productive and stable demographic structure. \u00a0Each gazelle matures through the prime of life, runs fast enough to escape its predators, raises a family. \u00a0Then with age, the gazelle\u2019s speed begins to lose its edge. \u00a0The lions are able to catch the older gazelles that have already replaced themselves, but not the young ones in the prime of life. \u00a0This is a stable population dynamic, and it is made possible by aging of the prey. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8230;and with social behaviors<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Like almost all predator birds and mammala, lions use territorial social behaviors to limit their population sizes and protect their prey. \u00a0There are a few spectacular fights to the death, but for the most part, the system is maintained through voluntary submission. \u00a0One family will hold a territory, and several non-mating individuals may lurk in the wings but <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">not reproduce<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and not challenge the territory-holder, sacrificing their individual fitness entirely, waiting for an opportunity like a pool of unemployed workers waiting for a job offer.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><\/h1>\n<p><b>Carl Safina: Beyond Words<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This week I have been reading Carl Safina\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/08\/04\/science\/review-beyond-words-carl-safina.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">wonderful new book<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> about the inner lives of animals, and the languages and social structures of three groups in particular: \u00a0elephants, wolves, and cetaceans. \u00a0He is an engaging story-teller, and after hearing one drama after another of intelligent, collective actions, I came to a new appreciation of animal societies. \u00a0Because population regulation is the center of my research, I found myself melding Carl\u2019s ideas with my own, and thinking about conscious, communal responses to overpopulation. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"http:\/\/ecx.images-amazon.com\/images\/I\/51zurwqtBNL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"329\" height=\"499\" \/>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Elephants and orcas have much in common. \u00a0Both orcas and elephants are apex predators, with no natural enemies. \u00a0They are also nomadic, traveling huge distances and foraging over great territories. \u00a0They use sound in ways that we might find difficult to imagine, communicating over huge distances. \u00a0Both elephants and orcas recognize hundreds, perhaps thousands of individuals, their personalities and social relations, and have names for themselves, can call to specific others over distances of many miles. \u00a0Both are guided in their migrations by elder matriarchs who accumulate decades\u2019 of experience about feeding prospects in many and widely-dispersed locations. \u00a0Leadership in elephant tribes and orca pods is established via an elaborate political system of social relations, supported by communication modalities that a few devoted scientists, studying them for decades, have only begun to decode.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Because they\u00a0live much longer than the species on which they depend,\u00a0their demography must be tuned to plan ahead, or else they are in danger of devastating the species on which they depend for food. \u00a0A bloom in the orca population could wipe out salmon, so that the salmon would not recover for a long time; elephants range over many thousands of square miles, and can devastate the foilage in a region because of their prodigious demand for food.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">I learned that orcas divide into <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pelagic.org\/overview\/discover_1293.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">two cultures<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. \u00a0Some orcas eat fish but\u00a0not mammals; others eat mammals but not fish. \u00a0Both are highly social, and are extremely friendly, gentle, playful and careful in encouters with humans. \u00a0Fish-eating whale pods might meet other pods of fish-eating whales and greet them as old friends, talking and touching. \u00a0Likewise with mammal-eating whales. \u00a0But fish-eating and mammal-eating clans ignore one another utterly. \u00a0They overlap in territory, but they do not interact. \u00a0They don\u2019t fight, and they don\u2019t talk. \u00a0They swim right past one another.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Warning &#8211; the rest of this\u00a0column is my own speculation, and is not established or tested science. \u00a0My theory fits the facts, but it is out on the edge.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A species may gradually evolve population regulation built into its life plan, co-evolved within an ecosystem. \u00a0This is a long, slow process. \u00a0But when a species becomes social, it may learn to hunt with suddenly far greater efficiency than when individuals were hunting separately. \u00a0Social learning is much faster than the \u201cgenetic learning\u201d that is accomplished via natural selection. \u00a0The genes don\u2019t have time to catch up. \u00a0So when a species of animals learns to hunt socially, it must also learn to control its population socially. \u00a0Through territoriality and other agreements&#8211;through culture and communication&#8211;the population group must maintain restraint, or it will devastate its food supply and starve to extinction.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">I imagine that orcas and elephants each faced this problem many tens of thousands of years ago, perhaps hundreds of thousands of years ago. \u00a0They hunt cooperatively with devastating effectiveness. \u00a0As they learned to hunt together, they must also have learned some scheme for apportioning the privilege of reproduction, an essentially political process. \u00a0Neither species is territorial in the usual sense; they roam over huge, overlapping territories. \u00a0Via communication and enforcement systems unknown to science, they have maintained their populations at levels that allow them to feed their prodigious biomass comfortably and with little fear of starvation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The impact of humans<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">All this must have changed in the 20th Century, as humans blundered into their ecologies, killing huge numbers of whales and elephants, and\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/irgc.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/Fisheries_Depletion_full_case_study_web.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">laying waste to their food resources<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. \u00a0At the same time that new political agreements, new negotiations and cultures were necessary for their survival, we have killed the oldest, largest, and wisest matriarchs who might have guided this process.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In my fantasy, the worldwide Orca community ate only fish until they faced a crisis in the mid-20th Century precipitated by human overfishing. \u00a0They shared information and held meetings about the extent of the damage. \u00a0They were shocked and saddened by the oblivious, blundering behavior of humans, but they were too wise to try to go to war, to take retribution against humans. \u00a0Perhaps they knew that this would trigger an extermination campaign that went beyond harpoons to <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/thetyee.ca\/Life\/2008\/05\/13\/ShootingOrcas\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">machine guns<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. \u00a0There was a deep divide in opinion; some orcas thought they had no choice but to expand their hunting to walruses, seals, and porpoises in order to continue to live with the freedom they had once known; others must have thought that hunting mammals was barbaric, akin to cannibalism. \u00a0Perhaps the two orca cultures agreed to disagree, and have lived in separate communities for decades, though their territories are not at all separate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Can humans learn from animals?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Man is in uncharted territory because in the last 150 years we have learned to increase our life span to the point where our population growth far outstrips the growth of our historic food species. \u00a0We have made up the difference by harnessing fossil energy sources to expand our habitat, and by farming on a global scale, transforming natural ecosystems into artificial ecosystems. \u00a0We don\u2019t know how long this process can continue, and we don\u2019t know whether our engineering can secure the fragility of artificial ecosystems. \u00a0We have not yet begun to face the Law of Unintended Consequences. \u00a0\u00a0Hence \u201cuncharted territory\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But perhaps we have something to learn from the orcas and the elephants.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 677px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/jonlomberg.com\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/katemckinnon.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/04\/too-hot-too-dumb-too-cold.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"687\" height=\"320\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Jon Lomberg &#8212; Intelligent Life in the Universe<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One species has come to sit atop the biosphere in much of the world, to dominate and transform the world\u2019s ecosystems. \u00a0A complex of environmental crises looms, and they can\u2019t count on evolution to change their genetics fast enough to catch their fall. \u00a0The crisis will have to be negotiated with social agreements. \u00a0Will their &#8230; <a title=\"Orcas and Elephants&#8211;Aging and the Taboo Subject of Population Regulation\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/joshmitteldorf\/2015\/08\/13\/orcas-and-elephants-aging-and-the-taboo-subject-of-population-regulation\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Orcas and Elephants&#8211;Aging and the Taboo Subject of Population Regulation\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":65,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Orcas and Elephants-Aging and the Taboo Subject of Population Regulation - Josh Mitteldorf<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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