{"id":132,"date":"2011-01-23T14:44:40","date_gmt":"2011-01-23T18:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/poseidonsciences.peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/?p=106"},"modified":"2011-07-15T17:47:20","modified_gmt":"2011-07-15T17:47:20","slug":"mathematical-models-of-emerging-and-collapsing-societies-from-asimov%e2%80%99s-fictional-futuristic-tale-to-the-real-science-of-gavrilets%e2%80%99-numerical-simulations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scienceblog.com\/poseidonsciences\/132\/mathematical-models-of-emerging-and-collapsing-societies-from-asimov%e2%80%99s-fictional-futuristic-tale-to-the-real-science-of-gavrilets%e2%80%99-numerical-simulations\/","title":{"rendered":"Mathematical models of emerging and collapsing societies. From Asimov\u2019s fictional futuristic tale to the real science of Gavrilets\u2019 numerical simulations"},"content":{"rendered":"

I was preoccupied in this last three weeks of January about the bigger picture of how life and work might look like in 2011, mostly playing catch-up with work issues since a lot of things just got placed in my \u2018waiting basket\u2019 during the Holidays.\u00a0 I was also bothered by little things; especially about finding my old collection of science fiction books by Isaac Asimov called The Foundation Series<\/em>, the first trilogy printed in the 1950\u2019s.\u00a0 My kids typically classify my preoccupation with things and events of that era as the \u2018dinosaur years.\u2019\u00a0 With a plethora of science fiction paperback novels and special effects movies in the last 10 years alone, why should I be interested in a similar genre written 60 years ago?\u00a0 Not sure what the answers is.\u00a0 Perhaps by the time I finish this tale of science fiction and real science we will both have the answer to this question.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

As I rummage hopelessly through my \u2018library\u2019 (In my case defined as rooms full of books, manuscripts, articles and magazines scattered on the floor, on bookshelves and on top of tables, along with the smattering of half a dozen partially filled and almost empty cups of coffee for \u2018decorative\u2019 purposes), I decided to just glance over to my laptop to check out today\u2019s smorgasbord of science news in peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com.\u00a0 And there it was!\u00a0 Not Asimov\u2019s books, but an article published recently by Sergey Gavrilets (National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis) and co-authored by David G. Anderson (University of Tennessee-Knoxville) and Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut).\u00a0 The article \u201cCycling in the complexity of early societies\u201d was among the first in the brand new journal called Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History<\/em>, \u201cthe first academic journal to research from the emerging science of theoretical history and mathematics.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s nice.\u00a0 But, where\u2019s the connection to Asimov\u2019s books?\u00a0 Let me tell you first what this article is all about as best as I can figure it out.\u00a0 I really am not a fan of anything mathematical, especially when it comes to theoretical population biology on which I still harbor occasional nightmares from grad school days.\u00a0 The start of the population biology class usually triggers also the start of \u00a0my usual fantasy of being somewhere else\u2014on a tropical beach, sipping margarita under a coconut tree, surrounded by native women wearing sarong– that is, when I wasn\u2019t dozing off.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Gavrilets developed a mathematical model, using hundreds of years of human historical data, to predict the rise and fall of complex societies.\u00a0 Through numerical simulations that take into account parameters such the size of the state, political power, length of rule, economic variables, etc, his team was able to explain the dynamic processes that cause kingdoms, states and empires to collapse on the scale of decades and centuries.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gavrilets concludes:\u00a0<\/p>\n

Over the past several decades mathematical methods and techniques have become very important in life sciences and social sciences. In particular, mathematical and computational modelings are powerful tools for better understanding the origins of new species and of general rules of biological diversification. Agent-based simulation modeling efforts like those advanced here offer fruitful avenues for future research on general patterns in historical dynamics and on the emergence and diversification of human societies.<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Isaac Asimov<\/h2>\n

Much has been written about Asimov and thought I just give you a snapshot of his life and his works as a preamble to the next part of this narrative.\u00a0 Isaac Asimov (family name derived from the Russian word meaning winter grain<\/em>\u2014from his great grandfather\u2019s occupation) was born in Russia as Isaak Yudovich Ozimov of Jewish ancestry, immigrated to United\u00a0 States at the age of 3 and later became one of the most prolific American writers of all time, with over 500 books\u00a0 to his credit.\u00a0 Not knowing the exact date of his birth due to the uncertainty between the Gregorian and Jewish calendars of the time, he simply decided that his birthday ought to be January 2, 1920.\u00a0 He would have been 90 years of age this month.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Young Isaac taught himself to read English at the age of five, taking advantage of the \u201cpulp\u201d science fiction magazines sold in his father\u2019s candy store in Brooklyn, NY. (Pulp \u00a0magazines, pulp fiction or simply \u2018the pulps\u2019 refer to cheap fiction magazines printed between 1896 through the 1950\u2019s on cheap, ragged, untrimmed wood pulp paper.\u00a0 It was famous for being cheaper than the magazines called \u2018glossies.\u2019 \u00a0Pulps mostly feature lurid, sensational, exploitive stories with colorful page covers.\u00a0 Comic book superheroes are considered descendants of pulp fiction<\/em>).\u00a0 Though his father disapproved of pulp science fiction magazines, Isaac managed to convince him otherwise since he reasoned that the word \u2018science\u2019 was there and therefore must be \u2018educational.\u2019\u00a0 By 11, he was already writing his own stories and by the age of 19 selling stories to science fiction magazines himself.\u00a0 Educated in the New York public school system, he eventually received his PhD in biochemistry from Columbia University in 1948.\u00a0 Along with Arthur C. Clarke and Robert A. Heinlein, Isaac Asimov is considered the master of science fiction during his life time.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>The words robotics<\/em>, positronic<\/em> (an entirely fictional technology) and psychohistory<\/em> (also fictional) are all attributed to Asimov from his novels.\u00a0 Robotics and positronic continues to be part of American lexicon, most notably in movies, such as Star Trek; The Next Generation<\/em> that featured androids with positronic brains.\u00a0\u00a0 His robot stories which became part of the novel I, Robot<\/em> in 1950 and\u00a0 made into a film in 2004 with Will Smith, described a set of ethical rules for robots (The Three Laws of Robotics<\/em>) leading to other stories, such as the Bicentennial Man<\/em>, also made into a movie starring Robin Williams.\u00a0 He became a friend and science advisor to Gene Roddenberry on many Star Trek<\/em> projects.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Foundation Series<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Though Asimov had written history books (about the Greeks, Romans, Babylonians and Egyptians), mystery stories (in Ellery Queen\u2019s Mystery<\/em> Magazine<\/em>), scholarly biblical works and countless science fiction stories, he is singularly remembered for his Foundation Series<\/em>.\u00a0 This is where Gavrilets and Asimov converged in this narrative<\/strong>.\u00a0 The Foundation Series<\/em> comprises seven science fiction novels, the first three, the Foundation Trilogy (Foundation<\/em>, Foundation and Empire<\/em> and Second Foundation) are<\/em> considered the most famous and written in the early 1950\u2019s.\u00a0 It wasn\u2019t until 30 years later that he began writing again the 4th<\/sup> entry in the saga.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The fictional story goes like this:\u00a0<\/p>\n

The setting is the universe thousands of years in the future when mankind, with a population in the quadrillions and ruled by a Galactic Empire, occupied millions of star systems in the galaxy.\u00a0 A mathematician named Hari Seldon developed a mathematical simulation, called psychohistory.\u00a0 The principle, based on the laws of mass action, numerically calculates the behavior of a quadrillion inhabitants (anything less is inaccurate) that enabled Seldon to predict the imminent collapse of the Empire.\u00a0 It also predicted that the collapse will follow a period of 30,000 years of descent to anarchy and barbarism, akin to the Dark Ages of medieval Europe, before the rise of the Second Empire.\u00a0 His mathematical modeling also predicted an alternative option with the Dark Ages lasting only 1,000 years, if a source of knowledge can fill the vacuum left by the collapse of the Empire and the technologies that created it.\u00a0 The Seldon Plan, which attempts to minimize the period of the Dark Ages, was to establish two cryptic societies, one at each opposite end of the Milky Way galaxy, populated by scientists and technocrats, called the Foundations, ready to step in as the Empire collapses.\u00a0 The Galactic Emperor found out about psychohistory and the adventures began\u2026<\/em>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gavrilet and Asimov\u2019s Hari Seldon<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

A science fiction writer conceives the idea from basic facts and then extrapolates from there, creating fantasies and visions not always possible in a real scientific discipline.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>There are times when the figment of a fiction writer\u2019s fantasy decades before becomes a common reality now.\u00a0\u00a0 Let\u2019s take the case of the Star Trek<\/em> television series of the late 60\u2019s.\u00a0 The series described the interstellar adventures of Capt. Kirk, Mr. Spock, Dr. McCoy, a multi-ethnic crew (first time such an attempt was made in the racially charged era of the 1960\u2019s) and the occasional alien crew member or guests in galactic starship Enterprise <\/em>of the 22nd<\/sup> century. \u00a0This unique TV series created the biggest ever fan base of science fiction enthusiasts (and that includes yours truly).\u00a0 Even NASA named its first space shuttle Enterprise<\/em> in honor of the fictional galactic starship. Though the original airing of the TV series was not accessible to me then (I happened to be in an island in another continent at the time; and yes, no American TV), coming to America, I did grow up on the TV reruns of Gene Roddenberry\u2019s vision of the future, many of which has come to fruition in my life time:\u00a0 mobile phones, pda, tablet PC, hand held diagnostic instruments (Mr. Spock\u2019s tricorder<\/em>), MRI (Dr. Spock\u2019s diagnostic table), the jet injector for drugs (Dr. McCoy\u2019s hypospray<\/em>), the universal translator (now the voice recognition and language software), the telepresence<\/em> device (now the video conferencing) and the phaser<\/em> set to stun (now the Taser gun to immobilize), just to name a few.\u00a0 Even the truly far out concepts of the Romulan<\/em> cloaking device, the transporter beam, the tractor beam, the energy shield to protect the starship are being researched seriously.\u00a0 New results from military and university research are paving the way for new materials to distort light to hide objects in plain sight, new methods\u00a0 transport small items by fragmenting molecules and electronic shield\/counter strike weapons that destroy incoming projectiles, now featured in the more recent Israeli design for combat tanks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Isaac Asimov\u2019s fiction of a mathematician predicting the collapse of the Galactic Empire<\/em> made a good the story. \u00a0It was purely from the fantasies of Asimov\u2019s fertile mind.\u00a0 But like in Star Trek<\/em>, some fantasies eventually turn to something real\u2014sometimes.\u00a0 Gavrilets\u2019 numerical simulations do seem to show that such predictions can be possible.\u00a0 His paper certainly is an elegant piece of scientific work and will surely be controversial.\u00a0 Whether it can predict the collapse of empires, perhaps Gavrilets, like Hari Seldon<\/em>, have to wait before mankind reach the quadrillion mark in the far flung reaches of a future galactic empire.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I wonder if Sergey Gavrilets ever read the Foundation trilogy.\u00a0 Had he been alive today, Isaac Asimov would have been ecstatic to read Gavrilets\u2019 paper.\u00a0 Perhaps, I should ask Gavrilets about the Foundation<\/em> novels if we ever meet one day.\u00a0\u00a0 Not to talk about galactic futures, but about the recent collapses of dictatorial states and when future ones might be expected to follow the same path.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I think science fiction writers and mathematicians in sociobiology have one thing in common \u2013 they seem to chase after futuristic events.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I am sure Isaac Asimov would\u00a0agree.<\/p>\n

Jonathan R. Matias<\/p>\n

Chief Science Officer<\/p>\n

Poseidon Sciences Group<\/p>\n

www.poseidonsciences.com<\/a><\/p>\n

PS<\/p>\n

Still looking for Asimov\u2019s books !<\/p>\n

SUGGESTED READING<\/p>\n

https:\/\/peachpuff-wolverine-566518.hostingersite.com\/41939\/mathematical-model-explains-how-complex-societies-emerge-collapse\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Gavrilets S, Anderson D, Turchin P. 2010. Cycling in the complexity of early societies. Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History. 1:1 <\/span><\/p>\n

http:\/\/escholarship.org\/uc\/irows_cliodynamics?volume=1;issue=1<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Foundation_series<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Isaac_Asimov<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.tiem.utk.edu\/~gavrila\/Research.htm<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/electronics.howstuffworks.com\/10-star-trek-technologies10.htm<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I was preoccupied in this last three weeks of January about the bigger picture of how life and work might look like in 2011, mostly playing catch-up with work issues since a lot of things just got placed in my \u2018waiting basket\u2019 during the Holidays.\u00a0 I was also bothered by little things; especially about finding … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6],"tags":[43,65,108,110,115,121,126,144,176,177,178,184,189,195,205,215,218],"class_list":["post-132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technology","tag-bicentennial-man","tag-cliodynamics","tag-hari-seldon","tag-historical-dynamics","tag-i-robot","tag-isaac-asimov","tag-jonathan-r-matias","tag-mathematical-models","tag-population-biology","tag-poseidon-sciences","tag-positronic","tag-psychohistory","tag-robotics","tag-sergey-gavrilets","tag-star-trek","tag-the-foundation-series","tag-trilogy"],"yoast_head":"\nMathematical models of emerging and collapsing societies. 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