Just because I ask that question, don’t think I am proposing an answer. There is, however, a record-breaking tropical cyclone churning the Arabian Sea as I write this.
The link above takes you to the blog of journalist Chris Mooney, who has been doing an excellent job of covering both the science and politics of that question. I’ve reviewed his upcoming book on the subject.
In a post this morning, Mooney notes the remarkable number of record intensity readings for tropical cyclones in various parts of the world. There’s this week’s Gonu, the first ever Category 5 storm in the Arabian Sea. There was 2004’s Cyclone Catarina, the first recorded hurricane to form in the South Atlantic and strike Brazil. There was Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which had the lowest central pressure in the Atlantic Basin, and 2006 had storms that set records in the Southern Hemisphere and the Central Pacific.
It would be quite a leap to claim that these storms signify a relationship between global warming and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Mooney is appropriately cautious in his conclusion and his wording:
“I don’t know. I can’t say one way or another. I can only cite the records and say that they are certainly consistent with the idea that global warming is causing an intensification of the average hurricane.”
I agree. These storms lend credence to the argument that global warming is leading to more intense hurricanes. On the whole, the evidence is a long way from making that case beyond a reasonable doubt. Still, these storms do add a little bit to the preponderance of the evidence that one consequence of global warming will be more powerful tropical cyclones in many if not all of the ocean basins of the world.
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