An article just published in the scientific journal ‘Osteoporosis International‘ introduces a validated new model that can be used to describe the current and future burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in different national settings.
The model, published by researchers from the UK on behalf of the International Osteoporosis Foundation’s Committee of Scientific Advisors, was developed and validated using Swedish data. It can be used to forecast the incidence and prevalence of fractures not only by age and calendar year, but also by BMD category. It provides a high degree of accuracy, as the predictions of fracture rates for all fracture sites were within a 5% margin of error compared with published data when averaged across ages.
The incidence of osteoporotic fractures increases markedly with age and, given the rapidly ageing populations in many countries of the world, there is a real need to predict the future burden of fractures. For example in Europe, where the proportion of the population aged 65 or over will increase from 17% in 2008 to 30% in 2060, a serious increase in the number of osteoporotic fractures is expected. Even more marked increases are projected in other regions of the world, particularly in Asia where a 7.6-fold increase in elderly people is predicted between 2000 and 2050.
The new model provides a potentially powerful tool to inform health policy decision making. Early diagnosis and effective fracture prevention strategies could translate into huge cost savings for health care systems around the world.
Development and validation of a disease model for postmenopausal osteoporosis.
A. Gauthier, J.A. Kanis, M. Martin, J. Compston, F. Borgström, C. Cooper, E. McCloskey, On behalf of the IOF Committee of Scientific Advisors.
DOI: 10.1007/s00198-010-1358-3
The online version of this article is accessible for a limited period at
http://www.springerlink.com/content/kk50v7721p12637j/
About Osteoporosis International:
An international multi-disciplinary journal which is a joint initiative between the International Osteoporosis Foundation and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, Osteoporosis International provides a forum for the communication and exchange of current ideas concerning the diagnosis, prevention, treatment and management of osteoporosis and other metabolic bone diseases. It publishes: original papers – reporting progress and results in all areas of osteoporosis and its related fields; review articles – reflecting the present state of knowledge in special areas of summarizing limited themes in which discussion has led to clearly defined conclusions; educational articles – giving information on the progress of a topic of particular interest; case reports – of uncommon or interesting presentations of the condition.
Impact factor 4.997, ranked 19 of 105 journals in Endocrinology and Metabolism. Published by Springer Verlag.
Printed version: ISSN 0937-941X
Electronic version: ISSN 1433-2965
http://www.springer.com/journal/00198
About IOF:
The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) is a non-profit, nongovernmental organization dedicated to the worldwide fight against osteoporosis, the disease known as “the silent epidemic”. IOF’s members — committees of scientific researchers, patient, medical and research societies and industry representatives from around the world — share a common vision of a world without osteoporotic fractures. IOF now represents 195 societies in 93 locations around the world. http://www.iofbonehealth.org
