Ukraine’s Energy Rebirth: Renewables Key to Post-War Recovery

The map displays all electricity generation and transmission assets in Ukraine as of February 2022, along with military attacks through 6 June 2023. In February 2022, Ukraine's mainland power system included over 1,500 generation plants across seven regional power systems, with a total capacity of 59 GW. Of this capacity, 49% came from fossil fuels (coal and/or gas), 23% from nuclear power, and the rest from solar (13%), hydropower (11%), wind (3%), and biomass/biogas (

The map displays all electricity generation and transmission assets in Ukraine as of February 2022, along with military attacks through 6 June 2023. In February 2022, Ukraine's mainland power system included over 1,500 generation plants across seven regional power systems, with a total capacity of 59 GW. Of this capacity, 49% came from fossil fuels (coal and/or gas), 23% from nuclear power, and the rest from solar (13%), hydropower (11%), wind (3%), and biomass/biogas (<1%).

Summary: A new study maps Ukraine’s electricity system destruction and proposes renewables as the cornerstone for rebuilding, offering faster deployment, increased resilience, and reduced dependence on fuel imports.

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

The ongoing war in Ukraine has dealt a devastating blow to the country’s energy infrastructure, with nearly all large power plants targeted since February 2022. A groundbreaking study published in the journal Joule reveals that Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity has plummeted to roughly one-third of pre-war levels, prompting urgent discussions on how to rebuild the system amid significant uncertainties.

Led by researchers from ETH Zurich, the Technical University of Munich, and the University of Bayreuth, the study presents the first comprehensive geospatial mapping of Ukraine’s electricity system and its war-time destruction. The findings paint a stark picture of the challenges ahead but also offer a blueprint for a more resilient and sustainable energy future.

The Scale of Destruction

The research team, including Ukrainian scientist Iryna Doronina, now at the Technical University of Munich, found that the impact on Ukraine’s energy sector has been severe and widespread. “One year after the start of the war in February 2022, 76 percent of thermal power plants had been destroyed; now the figure is 95 percent,” Doronina reports. “And all the large hydroelectric power plants have also failed.”

This systematic targeting of energy infrastructure has not only crippled power generation but also significantly weakened the grid. Attacks on transmission lines and substations, particularly in eastern Ukraine, have further compromised the country’s ability to distribute electricity effectively.

Renewables: A Path to Rapid Recovery

The study argues that renewable energy sources should form the backbone of Ukraine’s future electricity system. This recommendation is based on four key criteria that any rebuilding effort should meet:

  1. Speed of rebuilding
  2. Increased resilience
  3. Reduced fuel import dependence
  4. Abatement of polluting emissions

Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power, stands out as the only option that satisfies all four criteria. The researchers have created high-resolution maps highlighting the most favorable areas for solar and wind energy production across Ukraine’s regions.

Untapped Potential

The technical potential for renewable energy in Ukraine is staggering. The study estimates a potential of around 180 gigawatts for wind energy and 39 gigawatts for solar energy, totaling 219 gigawatts. This far exceeds Ukraine’s pre-war generation capacity of 59 gigawatts.

“We’ve established that practically all Ukraine’s large, centralised power plants have been attacked since February 2022,” says Professor Tobias Schmidt of ETH Zurich. “This has reduced the total electricity generation capacity to around one-third of the pre-war level.”

A Decentralized Future

The researchers advocate for a shift towards a decentralized energy system. “Ukraine should develop a distributed power supply system,” Doronina explains. “A centralised system is easier to attack, whereas independent systems are more resistant to war and crisis.”

This approach aligns with the rapid deployment capabilities of renewable energy technologies. Solar and wind installations can be set up much more quickly than conventional centralized plants, allowing for faster recovery and increased resilience against future attacks.

Policy Implications and Investment Opportunities

The study’s findings have significant implications for both Ukrainian and international policymakers. By providing transparent, scientifically-sound data on renewable energy potential, the research aims to reduce corruption risks and attract investment.

“The transparency of our results reduces the risk of corruption, as the proposed approaches to prioritise the areas with greater potential and those that urgently need to be redeveloped are scientifically sound and balanced,” Doronina states.

The research has already garnered attention from key stakeholders. The results were presented to the European Commission at its Joint Research Center in the Netherlands, and the study was among the first to consider the requirements of the Renewable Energy Directive III of the EU (RED III).

Quiz

  1. What percentage of Ukraine’s thermal power plants have been destroyed as of the study’s publication?
  2. How much potential wind energy capacity did the researchers estimate for Ukraine?
  3. What are the four criteria the study suggests any rebuilding effort should meet?

Answers:

  1. 95%
  2. 180 gigawatts
  3. Fast rebuilding, increased resilience, lowered fuel import dependence, and abatement of polluting emissions

Further Reading:

  1. Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) – European Commission
  2. Ukraine Energy Profile – International Energy Agency
  3. Post-War Recovery and Reconstruction in Ukraine – World Bank

Glossary of Terms:

  1. Geospatial mapping: The process of collecting, analyzing, and visualizing data related to specific geographic locations.
  2. Distributed power supply system: An electrical generation and distribution system in which small-scale technologies produce power close to the end users.
  3. Technical potential: The theoretical maximum amount of energy that could be generated from a particular source, given ideal conditions and full exploitation.
  4. Gigawatt (GW): A unit of power equal to one billion watts, often used to measure the capacity of large power plants or electrical grids.
  5. Renewable Energy Directive (RED): A European Union directive that aims to promote the use of energy from renewable sources.
  6. Decentralized energy system: An approach to energy production where multiple smaller energy sources are distributed across a wide area, as opposed to centralized large-scale facilities.

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