Summary: A new study using machine learning to analyze AI patents has identified which occupations are most likely to be impacted by artificial intelligence, with surprising results that challenge common assumptions about AI’s effects on the job market.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Artificial intelligence is poised to transform industries across the board, but its impact on specific jobs has remained largely speculative. Now, a groundbreaking study published in PNAS Nexus has used AI to investigate itself, shedding light on which occupations are most likely to feel the effects of this rapidly advancing technology.
Methodology: AI Analyzing AI
Researchers led by Daniele Quercia employed a novel approach to assess AI’s potential impact on various jobs. Their method involved analyzing the semantic similarity between occupational task descriptions from O*NET, a comprehensive US government occupations database, and descriptions of AI patents filed with the United States Patent and Trademark Office between 2015 and 2022.
The team’s machine learning model examined 17,879 task descriptions and 24,758 AI patents, comparing entire task descriptions to entire patent descriptions. This nuanced approach went beyond simple keyword matching, providing a more accurate picture of AI’s potential influence on different occupations.
Surprising Findings: Most and Least Impacted Jobs
The study’s results challenge common assumptions about which jobs are most vulnerable to AI disruption. According to the researchers, the occupations most impacted by AI include:
- Orthodontists
- Security guards
- Air traffic controllers
On the other end of the spectrum, the least impacted occupations include:
- Pile driver operators
- Dredge operators
- Graders of agricultural products
These findings contradict the widespread belief that jobs involving repetitive tasks are necessarily the most vulnerable to AI replacement. Instead, the researchers found that occupations with tasks following a specific sequence and producing machine-readable output were most likely to be impacted by AI.
Rethinking AI’s Role in the Workforce
The study’s authors argue that previous research has often overestimated AI’s potential to eliminate jobs. They point out that many sectors potentially impacted by AI, such as healthcare and transportation, are currently experiencing worker shortages rather than surpluses.
Moreover, the researchers emphasize that AI is more likely to augment human capabilities rather than replace workers entirely in many cases. For example, while AI can analyze medical images like X-rays to assist doctors in identifying issues, it cannot fully replace the expertise and decision-making skills of human medical professionals.
Implications for the Future of Work
The findings of this study have significant implications for how we approach AI development and integration in the workplace. The authors suggest that:
- Tech developers should focus on creating AI tools that support and enhance human capabilities rather than aiming to replace workers entirely.
- Leaders and policymakers should promote the use of AI with an emphasis on training and education, ensuring that the benefits of AI are widely distributed across the workforce.
By taking this approach, we can harness the power of AI to improve productivity and job satisfaction while minimizing potential negative impacts on employment.
Conclusion
As AI continues to evolve and reshape the job market, studies like this one provide valuable insights into its true impact on various occupations. By understanding which jobs are most likely to be affected, we can better prepare for the future of work and ensure that AI serves as a tool for human empowerment rather than displacement.
Quiz:
- Which of the following occupations was identified as most impacted by AI in the study? a) Pile driver operators b) Orthodontists c) Graders of agricultural products
- What type of tasks were found to be most likely impacted by AI? a) Repetitive tasks b) Tasks involving human interaction c) Tasks following a specific sequence producing machine-readable output
- According to the study, how is AI likely to affect many jobs? a) Completely replace human workers b) Have no impact at all c) Augment rather than replace human capabilities
Answers:
- b) Orthodontists
- c) Tasks following a specific sequence producing machine-readable output
- c) Augment rather than replace human capabilities
Further Reading:
- O*NET Resource Center: https://www.onetcenter.org/
- United States Patent and Trademark Office: https://www.uspto.gov/
- PNAS Nexus Journal: https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus
Glossary of Terms:
- Semantic similarity: The degree to which two pieces of text are related in meaning.
- Machine learning: A subset of artificial intelligence that enables systems to learn and improve from experience without being explicitly programmed.
- Patent: A government authority or license conferring a right or title for a set period, especially the sole right to exclude others from making, using, or selling an invention.
- Augment: To make (something) greater by adding to it; increase.
- AI Impact (AII) score: A measure developed in this study to quantify the potential impact of AI on specific occupations.
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