A recent study by MIT researchers reveals that commercial air travel has become increasingly safer over the past five decades. The risk of a fatality from commercial flights has decreased significantly, with the latest data showing a remarkable improvement in passenger safety.
The Numbers Behind Airline Safety
The study, led by Arnold Barnett, a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, found that the risk of a fatality from commercial air travel was 1 per 13.7 million passenger boardings globally in the 2018-2022 period. This is a substantial improvement from 1 per 7.9 million boardings in 2008-2017 and a dramatic change from 1 per 350,000 boardings in 1968-1977.
Barnett, a leading expert in air travel safety, explains the significance of these findings: “Aviation safety continues to get better. You might think there is some irreducible risk level we can’t get below. And yet, the chance of dying during an air journey keeps dropping by about 7 percent annually, and continues to go down by a factor of two every decade.”
This trend in aviation safety improvement is likened to Moore’s Law in computing, where the power of computer chips doubles roughly every 18 months. In the case of air travel, safety has been doubling approximately every decade since the late 1960s.
The Impact of Covid-19 on Air Travel Safety
While the long-term trend shows consistent improvement in safety related to accidents and deliberate attacks, the Covid-19 pandemic introduced a new risk factor. The study estimates that from June 2020 through February 2021, before vaccines were widely available, there were about 1,200 deaths in the U.S. associated with Covid-19 transmission on passenger planes.
Globally, the researchers estimate that from March 2020 through December 2022, around 4,760 deaths were linked to the transmission of Covid-19 on airplanes. These estimates are based on available data about transmission rates and daily death rates, taking into account the age distributions of air passengers during the pandemic.
Why it matters: The continued improvement in airline safety is crucial for public confidence in air travel. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, safe and reliable air transportation plays a vital role in global commerce, tourism, and cultural exchange. Understanding these trends can help inform policy decisions and industry practices to further enhance safety measures.
The study also highlights global disparities in air travel safety. Countries are divided into three tiers based on their commercial air safety records, with a significant difference in fatality rates between the top and bottom tiers. For countries in the third tier, there were 36.5 times as many fatalities per passenger boarding in 2018-2022 compared to the top tier.
Looking ahead, the aviation industry faces ongoing challenges in maintaining and improving safety standards. Recent near-collisions on runways in the U.S. serve as a reminder that vigilance is always necessary. Future research may focus on addressing these incidents and further reducing risks across all aspects of air travel, from takeoff to landing.
As air travel continues to evolve, with new technologies and increased passenger volumes, the industry’s ability to adapt and improve safety measures will be crucial. The study’s findings provide a benchmark for future improvements and highlight the importance of ongoing research and innovation in aviation safety.
