Infant Health Decline Linked to 2016 Election Stress, Study Finds

Research Reveals Increase in Premature and Underweight Births Among Non-White Mothers

A new study from the University of California, Berkeley has uncovered a troubling trend in infant health following the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The research, published in the journal Demography, shows a significant increase in premature and underweight births among non-white mothers in the two years following Donald Trump’s election to office.

The study analyzed data from over 15 million U.S. births between November 2012 and November 2018, using records from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Researchers found that rates of low birth weight and preterm births increased for Black, Hispanic, and Asian Pacific Islander mothers compared to the years when Barack Obama was president.

Quantifying the Impact on Infant Health

The findings are particularly stark for Black mothers, who experienced the largest increase in underweight births. According to adjusted models, there was a 0.62 percentage point increase in low birth weight infants born to Black mothers. This translates to an estimated 3,783 additional underweight infants that may not have occurred if the election results had been different.

Paola D. Langer, a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy and the study’s first author, puts these numbers into perspective: “The changes we observed for infants born to U.S.-born Black mothers in the first two years after Trump’s election are approximately three times as large as that of the wildfires,” referring to a recent study that found exposure to large wildfires was associated with a 0.2% increase in infants with low birth weights.

Caitlin Patler, an associate professor at the Goldman School of Public Policy and co-author of the paper, expressed shock at the findings: “It is always shocking to quantify the health harms that may be the result of structural racism and xenophobia. That thousands of infants may have been healthier had the election not occurred is incredibly troubling.”

The researchers suggest that the increase in adverse birth outcomes is likely due to a combination of stress and policy impacts. The anti-immigration rhetoric and policies associated with the Trump administration may have created an environment of heightened anxiety and fear among non-white communities, potentially affecting maternal health and, consequently, infant outcomes.

Why it matters: This research highlights the far-reaching consequences of political events on public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. Low birth weight and premature births are not just immediate health concerns; they are linked to long-term physical and cognitive development issues, as well as higher infant mortality rates. The study suggests that the health impacts of the 2016 election may have long-lasting effects on an entire generation of children.

It’s important to note that the study has limitations. The researchers caution that they cannot rule out other events during the same period that may have contributed to the increased rate of low birth weights, such as the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia in August 2017.

Looking forward, this research opens up new avenues for studying the health impacts of major political and social events. As Erin Hamilton, the paper’s senior author and a UC Davis sociology professor, notes: “We don’t usually think about things like elections harming health, but insofar as major political events cause stress, which we know they do, they can have physical health consequences.”

The findings underscore the need for policymakers and healthcare providers to be aware of the potential health impacts of political events, especially on marginalized communities. It also highlights the importance of support systems and stress-reduction strategies for expectant mothers during times of societal upheaval.

As the United States approaches another presidential election, this study serves as a stark reminder of the potential consequences of political rhetoric and policy decisions on public health. It calls for increased attention to maternal and infant health disparities and the development of strategies to mitigate the negative health impacts of stressful political events.


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