Most members of Britain’s Parliament got the answer wrong when researchers asked them a straightforward question about climate science: When do global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius?

The correct answer, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was 2025. That deadline has now passed. Yet when scientists surveyed 100 MPs in late 2023, fewer than 15% knew this basic fact from one of the world’s most widely publicized climate reports. More than 30% thought emissions could keep rising until 2040 or later.

The finding raises an uncomfortable question: If the people writing climate policy don’t know how little time we have, how can they act with appropriate urgency?

A Partisan Gap in Climate Knowledge

The University of East Anglia study, published today in Communications Earth & Environment, reveals more than simple ignorance. It exposes a political divide in how MPs perceive climate science. Labour MPs were nearly three times more likely than Conservative MPs to answer correctly, with 27% of Labour members getting it right compared to just 8.5% of Conservatives.

Dr. John Kenny from UEA’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research sees this as a communication failure with serious implications.

In a world of increasing information saturation and disinformation campaigns, getting factual information to filter through is no easy task, especially on a complex challenge like climate change. As time for meaningful action is running out, it is imperative we further understand how to effectively convey the key scientific messages to policymakers and the public.

The researchers chose this particular finding because it was everywhere in 2022 when the IPCC report dropped. The BBC called it a “key finding.” The Guardian covered it. One report lead author described it as “a bit of a bombshell.” If MPs couldn’t absorb this message with all that coverage, what else are they missing?

The British public did no better. In a separate survey of over 2,000 people, the same percentage (under 15%) knew the correct answer. Similar surveys in Canada, Chile, and Germany showed nearly identical patterns of confusion, with the correct answer consistently ranking as one of the least chosen options.

Why Some Get It Right

The study did identify patterns in who understood the urgency. Younger respondents across all countries were more likely to answer correctly. So were people who reported higher levels of climate worry and those with lower conspiracy belief mentality. In Britain and Chile, trusting scientists also correlated with accuracy.

What’s striking is how little these factors moved the needle. Even among the groups most likely to get it right, the percentages remained discouragingly low.

Co-author Dr. Lucas Geese points out that the composition of Parliament has shifted since the survey, with Labour now in power after the 2024 election. But he wonders whether the knowledge gap might partly explain recent political backsliding on climate commitments.

We cannot know from our study whether the current parliament may have a better awareness of the urgency of taking climate action than the previous one. Our results do raise questions however as to whether a lack of knowledge about the urgency of the problem may be somewhat responsible for the recent calls to reduce rather than ramp up climate action.

The UK has historically led on climate policy, passing the landmark Climate Change Act in 2008 and declaring a climate emergency in 2019. If MPs there struggle with basic IPCC findings, the researchers argue, the problem likely extends to parliaments worldwide.

The IPCC assessment reports represent a staggering effort: 782 authors, 66,000 peer-reviewed articles, nearly 200,000 review comments. Governments must approve every line of the summary for policymakers. And yet this elaborate system for translating science into policy appears to be failing at a fundamental level.

The researchers acknowledge that knowledge doesn’t automatically translate to action. Politicians might know the facts and still choose not to act, or they might lack knowledge but respond to other pressures. Still, you can’t make informed decisions without accurate information.

As emissions continue rising and the 1.5-degree target slips further from reach, the study suggests we face not just a climate crisis but a crisis of comprehension among those with the power to address it.

Communications Earth & Environment: 10.1038/s43247-025-02655-w