Two Futures Face Humanity: Social Collapse or Global Leap

Humanity stands at a crossroads between gradual societal breakdown and a transformative leap toward sustainable prosperity, according to new modeling research that charts human wellbeing through 2100.

The Earth4All study, published in Global Sustainability, reveals how rising inequality and environmental damage create a dangerous feedback loop that undermines governments’ ability to address existential threats like climate change.

The research introduces two starkly different scenarios for the remainder of this century. In the “Too Little Too Late” pathway, current economic policies continue driving inequality higher while global temperatures soar past 2°C, triggering what researchers describe as “a steadily greyer and more fragmented world.”

Social Tension as Climate Policy Killer

What makes this study unique is its integration of social dynamics into climate projections. The researchers developed novel indices to track both social tension and wellbeing, revealing how these factors shape governments’ capacity for long-term policymaking.

“By integrating a social tension index and a wellbeing index, we have been able to highlight the importance of social dynamics in climate scenarios,” explained co-author Nathalie Spittler of BOKU University. “Achieving climate goals is not just a question of technological and economic developments.”

The modeling suggests that when people feel their living standards are stagnating while elites pull further ahead, social tensions rise dramatically. This erosion of trust creates a vicious cycle where governments lose the political capital needed to implement ambitious climate policies.

Five Turnarounds to Change Everything

The alternative “Giant Leap” scenario demonstrates that transformation remains possible through five simultaneous policy shifts that researchers call “extraordinary turnarounds”:

• Ending poverty through massive investments in developing countries
• Reducing inequality via progressive taxation and stronger worker rights
• Empowering women through improved health, education and economic opportunities
• Transforming food systems through sustainable agriculture and dietary changes
• Revolutionizing energy through rapid renewable deployment and efficiency gains

These changes, if implemented simultaneously starting in the 2020s, could keep global warming below 2°C while steadily improving wellbeing worldwide. The model shows inequality declining, social tensions easing, and governments regaining capacity for long-term planning.

Technical Innovation Meets Social Reality

Lead author Per Espen Stoknes of BI Norwegian Business School emphasized the research’s central finding: “We asked a simple but urgent question: can human wellbeing improve while reducing pressures on the planetary boundaries? Our model says yes – but only if we make these turnarounds through decisive shifts in our current economic policies.”

The Earth4All model builds on system dynamics approaches pioneered in the 1970s “Limits to Growth” study, but incorporates crucial social feedback mechanisms missing from earlier work. Unlike conventional economic models that assume equilibrium, this approach captures how social and environmental factors interact over decades.

The model tracked global developments from 1980 to 2020 to establish baseline trends, then projected forward under different policy assumptions. A key innovation was modeling how perceived progress affects social cohesion, which in turn influences political feasibility of major reforms.

Narrow Window, Massive Stakes

The research underscores the speed and scale of action required to avoid civilizational breakdown. “The Giant Leap scenario shows we have a technically plausible, but ambitious path forward,” Stoknes noted. “It requires a level of international cooperation and political leadership we have yet to see, but such a political shift could still deliver a thriving future for humanity on a stable planet.”

Without such coordination, the “Too Little Too Late” pathway leads to temperatures exceeding 3°C, widespread ecological collapse, and societies increasingly unable to govern effectively as internal divisions deepen. The researchers warn this trajectory could create “a series of interlinked catastrophes for humanity.”

The study’s timing proves particularly relevant as current global policies point toward 3.1°C warming by 2100, placing the world firmly on the dystopian trajectory unless extraordinary measures begin immediately. The research suggests that reducing inequality and rebuilding social trust may be prerequisites for the political consensus needed to address climate change effectively.