Sudden gains or losses in the stock market may be more than just financial stress. They could be deadly.
A massive study of over 12 million deaths in China has linked daily stock market volatility to a rise in heart attacks, strokes, and suicides. Published in the journal Engineering, the study finds that both market booms and busts can increase the risk of major cardiovascular events and self-harm, especially among older men and those with less education.
Volatility as a Public Health Hazard
Stock markets are known to be roller coasters, but the health impacts of those ups and downs have rarely been measured this precisely. Led by Ya Gao and colleagues, the team analyzed individual death records from 2013 to 2019 across all of mainland China. Their results show:
- A 1% drop in daily stock returns led to a 0.74%–1.04% rise in deaths from heart attacks and strokes
- The same 1% drop increased suicide risk by 1.77%
- Even a 1% rise in stock returns raised cardiovascular mortality by up to 0.85% and suicide by 0.92%
- Intra-day stock oscillations (price swings within a day) also boosted the risk of death, especially suicide
The mortality risk was most acute on the same day as the market swing and diminished by the second day. Hemorrhagic stroke and suicide showed the greatest sensitivity to volatility.
Who Is Most at Risk?
The study identified several vulnerable groups:
- People aged 65 to 74
- Men
- Individuals with a middle school education or less
- Residents of central China
Interestingly, suicide risk was higher in warmer months, while cardiovascular risks were more pronounced during cooler seasons. The findings suggest a complex interplay between financial stress, physiology, and environmental factors.
How Stock Markets Might Harm Health
Why would a change in stock prices cause someone to die from a heart attack or take their own life? The authors point to well-known stress pathways. Sudden financial changes can trigger the release of stress hormones like cortisol and catecholamines. These, in turn, can raise blood pressure, inflame blood vessels, impair heart rhythms, and increase clotting—conditions ripe for strokes and cardiac events.
In the case of suicide, financial loss can amplify feelings of despair, especially for people already under pressure. But the study also finds that stock market gains aren’t harmless either. “Fear of missing out” during rallies or regret over bad trades can also provoke acute stress responses.
Not Just Traders at Risk
While the study focused on individuals who died, many were not necessarily stock traders. Still, they might have been indirectly exposed—through pensions, savings accounts, or even media coverage of market turmoil. This broader societal stress, the researchers argue, may explain why stock market shifts have measurable public health effects.
What Can Be Done?
The authors recommend several interventions to reduce health risks from financial volatility:
- Expand mental health services, especially during economic downturns
- Promote financial literacy to help people navigate market swings calmly
- Foster community support networks to buffer emotional distress
- Encourage public health messaging around stress management
They also suggest policymakers consider the psychological impact of economic news and promote greater market transparency to reduce unnecessary panic.
A Broader Wake-Up Call
This study is among the largest to examine individual-level links between financial fluctuations and mortality. Though the data come from China, where individual investors dominate the market, the implications likely extend worldwide. As economies grow more interconnected and more people invest through apps and retirement plans, the line between financial stress and physical health becomes thinner.
Whether you’re a day trader or someone checking their 401(k) once a quarter, these findings offer a sobering reminder: markets may go up and down, but our hearts and minds don’t always ride it out smoothly.
Journal: Engineering | DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2024.05.010