Earthquakes, long thought to strike without warning, may in fact betray signs of their impending arrival days or even weeks in advance, according to a new study published in De Gruyter’s Journal of Applied Geodesy. By analyzing a range of physical and chemical parameters in the ground, atmosphere, and ionosphere using satellite data, researchers have identified a series of anomalies that could serve as early warning signs for these devastating natural disasters.
Professor Mehdi Akhoondzadeh of the University of Tehran examined data from multiple satellites, including the Chinese seismo-electromagnetic satellite CSES-01 and the European Space Agency’s Swarm mission, in the days leading up to and following the catastrophic earthquakes that struck near the Turkey-Syria border on February 6, 2023. His findings revealed a striking pattern of anomalies that appeared to originate in the ground before propagating upward through the atmosphere and into the ionosphere.
Land Surface Temperature Anomalies Detected Up to 19 Days Before Quakes
The earliest signs of impending seismic activity were detected in land surface temperature data, with anomalies appearing in the earthquake region as early as 12 to 19 days prior to the events. Atmospheric anomalies, including unusual levels of water vapor, methane, ozone, and carbon monoxide, were observed between 5 and 10 days before the quakes struck.
Perhaps most strikingly, Professor Akhoondzadeh identified clear anomalies in the ionosphere, the layer of charged particles that exists above the atmosphere, just 1 to 5 days before the earthquakes. These anomalies included variations in electron density and temperature that had not been previously detected in connection with the Turkey-Syria quakes.
The timing of these anomalies, progressing from the ground to the atmosphere and finally to the ionosphere, suggests that they originated from processes deep within the Earth’s crust. By studying these precursors across multiple earthquakes and geographical regions, researchers hope to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the complex interactions that may herald an impending seismic event.
“Using CSES-01 satellite data, anomalies in the ionosphere prior to the earthquakes in Turkey on 6 February 2023 have been detected for the first time,” said Professor Akhoondzadeh. “By studying anomalies associated with multiple earthquake precursors, the uncertainty in detecting real anomalies decreases and this can be effective in creating earthquake warning systems with a low number of false warnings.”
While much work remains to be done before reliable earthquake early warning systems can be implemented, the findings of this study offer a tantalizing glimpse into the future of seismic risk mitigation. As satellite technology continues to advance and our understanding of earthquake precursors grows, we may one day be able to provide communities with the critical advance notice they need to prepare for and survive these devastating natural disasters.
