The Pacific Ocean is swallowing island nations. A new NASA analysis paints a sobering picture for low-lying countries like Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji. These nations will face at least 8 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise by 2054, regardless of future greenhouse gas emissions.
Summary: NASA’s sea level change science team projects at least 8 inches of sea level rise for Pacific Island nations in the next 30 years, with dramatic increases in flooding frequency.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
NASA’s sea level change science team conducted this analysis at the request of several Pacific Island nations and in coordination with the U.S. Department of State. The findings, released on September 23, include high-resolution maps showing vulnerable areas to high-tide flooding in various emissions scenarios.
Rising Waters, Sinking Islands
The study’s projections are dire. Areas of Tuvalu currently experiencing less than five high-tide flood days annually could see an average of 25 flood days per year by the 2050s. In Kiribati, regions now facing fewer than five flood days yearly may endure an astonishing 65 flood days annually within the same timeframe.
“Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director of ocean physics programs for NASA’s Earth Science Division. “NASA’s new flood tool tells you what the potential increase in flooding frequency and severity look like in the next decades for the coastal communities of the Pacific Island nations.”
These aren’t just numbers on a chart. For Pacific Islanders, this is an existential crisis unfolding in real-time.
“I am living the reality of climate change,” said Grace Malie, a youth leader from Tuvalu involved with the Rising Nations Initiative. “Everyone (in Tuvalu) lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this.”
A Complex Problem
The analysis highlights the multifaceted nature of sea level rise. Flooding can occur from ocean inundation during storms or exceptionally high tides, known as king tides. But there’s another, less visible threat: saltwater intrusion into underground areas, pushing the water table to the surface.
Malie describes this phenomenon firsthand: “There are points on the island where we will see seawater bubbling from beneath the surface and heavily flooding the area.”
While sea level rise isn’t uniform globally, the Pacific region shows a surprising consistency in projections. Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the agency’s sea level change science team lead, noted, “We’re always focused on the differences in sea level rise from one region to another, but in the Pacific, the numbers are surprisingly consistent.”
However, the impacts of 8 inches of sea level rise will vary significantly between nations. Some may face frequent airport flooding, while others could see neighborhoods inundated for nearly half the year.
Data Gaps and Future Challenges
Researchers aim to combine satellite data with ground-based measurements and improved land elevation information for more precise projections. However, Hamlington points out a significant obstacle: “There’s a real lack of on-the-ground data in these countries.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Pacific Island nations. As Malie emphasizes, “The future of the young people of Tuvalu is already at stake. Climate change is more than an environmental crisis. It is about justice, survival for nations like Tuvalu, and global responsibility.”
Quiz:
- How much sea level rise are Pacific Island nations projected to experience in the next 30 years?
- Which Pacific Island nation is mentioned as potentially experiencing an average of 65 flood days annually by the 2050s?
- What is the name of NASA’s tool that shows potential increases in flooding frequency and severity?
Answer Key:
- At least 8 inches (15 centimeters)
- Kiribati
- NASA’s new flood tool
Further Reading:
Glossary of Terms:
- Sea Level Rise: The increase in the level of the world’s oceans due to global warming.
- High-tide Flooding: Also known as nuisance flooding or sunny day flooding, occurs when tides reach about 1.5 to 2 feet above the daily average high tide.
- King Tides: Exceptionally high tides that occur when the gravitational pull of the sun and moon align.
- Saltwater Intrusion: The movement of saline water into freshwater aquifers.
- Water Table: The upper level of an underground surface in which the soil or rocks are permanently saturated with water.
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