Vanishing Waters Threaten Endangered Seals, Communities as Caspian Sea Retreats

The world’s largest landlocked body of water is shrinking at an alarming rate, threatening not only unique wildlife but billions of dollars in infrastructure and the livelihoods of millions, according to groundbreaking research published Thursday.

Scientists tracking the recession of the Caspian Sea have documented water levels falling faster than previously thought, with some coastal areas already retreating more than 56 kilometers (35 miles) inland since 2001. The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, reveals the northeastern portion of the sea has lost nearly half its water coverage in just over two decades.

“Some Caspian Sea level decline appears unavoidable, even with action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions,” said Dr. Simon Goodman from the School of Biology at the University of Leeds, who supervised the research. “However, with the anticipated effects unfolding over a few decades, it should be possible to find ways to protect biodiversity while safeguarding human interests and wellbeing.”

The Caspian Sea, bordered by five countries—Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan—has long been important for fishing, shipping and oil extraction. But rising temperatures are causing more water to evaporate than is flowing in from rivers like the Volga.

On its current trajectory, the sea could drop 5 to 10 meters (16-33 feet) even if global warming is limited to below 2°C, and by as much as a staggering 21 meters (69 feet) by 2100 if temperatures rise further, researchers found.

For perspective, the team noted that a water level decline of just 10 meters would transform approximately 112,000 square kilometers—an area larger than Iceland—from sea to desert.

The consequences are already visible. In the northeastern Caspian, the Komsomol Bay, officially recognized as an “Ecologically and Biologically Significant Area,” has nearly completely dried up, forcing endangered Caspian seals to find new habitats for crucial spring molting periods.

The Caspian seal, listed as Endangered since 2008, faces additional stress from declining ice coverage needed for breeding. The researchers calculated that a 5-meter drop in water levels could reduce the seal’s breeding habitat by up to 81 percent.

“The current declining trend is linked to global warming driving reduced precipitation, and a sharp increase in sea surface temperature and evaporation,” the authors note in their study.

Sturgeons, ancient fish prized for their meat and caviar, also face habitat reduction of 25 to 45 percent as the shallow waters they inhabit during summer and autumn disappear.

Perhaps most concerning for conservationists, the decline threatens to render current protected areas obsolete. The research found that marine protected area coverage would drop from 16.8 percent of the sea to just 1 percent with a 10-meter decline.

Human communities face equally daunting challenges. In the northern Caspian region, coastal settlements could find themselves stranded tens or even hundreds of kilometers from new shorelines. The port of Lagan in Russia could be separated from the water by up to 115 kilometers, while major oil fields currently accessible by ship would become landlocked.

Fishing communities may see their livelihoods collapse entirely as waters recede, while the newly exposed seabed presents another danger.

“The exposed dry seabed is likely to release dust containing industrial contaminants and salt, posing serious threats to human health, as previously occurred with the drying of the Aral Sea,” the researchers warn.

The team, comprising scientists from eight countries, recommends replacing traditional fixed-boundary conservation approaches with dynamic plans that can shift with the changing shoreline.

“Replacing traditional static conservation planning with a pre-emptive, dynamic approach that allows protected areas to track shifting ecosystems, is recommended to help endemic Caspian Sea biodiversity adapt to these changes, and to avoid conflicts with mitigation efforts directed at protecting human activities,” the researchers advise.

Dr. Elchin Mamedov from the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Azerbaijan, emphasized the broader implications: “This is an important study because it highlights the risks posed by climate change for Caspian region biodiversity and local communities and the need to enhance regional and international cooperation to help manage the impacts.”

With more than 15 million people living around the Caspian coast and significant geopolitical interests in the region’s energy resources, the study’s authors stress that the environmental crisis could have worldwide repercussions unless action begins immediately.

Rebecca Court, PhD researcher who worked on the study, emphasized the urgency: “We hope this research will help to raise awareness of the trajectory and potential impacts of the falling sea level. The mapping should better equip policymakers and conservationists to plan for and address the numerous issues in advance.”

While some recession is likely inevitable at this point, the researchers insist that coordinated planning between the five Caspian nations, along with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, could help mitigate the worst impacts on both nature and human communities.