Current climate policies are putting Earth on a dangerous trajectory toward triggering multiple irreversible changes in our planet’s systems, according to alarming new research published yesterday in Earth System Dynamics.
Scientists from the universities of Exeter and Hamburg analyzed the risk of “tipping” in 16 different parts of the Earth system, including major ice sheets, tropical coral reefs, and vast forests. Their most conservative estimate shows a 62% probability of triggering these tipping points if global policies remain unchanged.
“The good news from our study is that the power to prevent climate tipping points is still in our hands,” said lead author Jakob Deutloff. “By moving towards a more sustainable future with lower emissions, the risk of triggering these tipping points is significantly reduced.”
A “tipping point” occurs when a small change pushes a system into a new state, causing significant and long-term transformation. Once triggered, these changes may be impossible to reverse on human timescales, potentially leading to cascading effects throughout Earth’s systems.
The research examined five different scenarios of future development, known as shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In more sustainable scenarios with lower greenhouse gas emissions, the risk of crossing these dangerous thresholds decreases substantially.
One potentially positive finding is that carbon released by certain tipping events, such as Amazon rainforest dieback and permafrost thaw, is unlikely to cause enough additional warming to trigger other tipping points.
“Climate tipping points could have devastating consequences for humanity,” warned Professor Tim Lenton from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute. “It is clear that we are currently on a dangerous trajectory – with tipping points likely to be triggered unless we change course rapidly.”
The researchers assessed tipping risks in systems that would fundamentally alter Earth’s functionality, including the collapse of major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, widespread coral reef mortality, and significant changes in forest ecosystems.
Climate scientists have long warned about the potential for abrupt, non-linear changes in the Earth system, but this new research quantifies those risks more precisely than previous studies, showing the urgency of global climate action.
“We need urgent global action – including the triggering of ‘positive tipping points’ in our societies and economies – to reach a safe and sustainable future,” Lenton emphasized.
The study suggests that humanity still has agency in determining which path we take. By rapidly transitioning to renewable energy, protecting natural carbon sinks, and developing more sustainable economic systems, we could significantly reduce the likelihood of triggering these potentially catastrophic changes in Earth’s systems.
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