Researchers from the University of Bath have developed a method to predict when individuals posting on far-right forums are likely to commit terrorist acts based on their social media activity. The study, published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, identified specific content related to logistics, operational planning, and violent action as key risk signals that were evident up to four years before criminal activity.
Comparing Posts of Convicted Terrorists and Non-Violent Extremists
In a groundbreaking approach, the research team compiled a database of over 200,000 social media posts from 2011-2019. They compared the posts of 26 individuals convicted of terrorism-related offenses (mostly in the US and UK) with those of 48 people sharing extremist content on far-right forums who had not been convicted of violent offenses.
The analysis revealed that posts discussing the acquisition of weapons, knowledge about avoiding law enforcement, and violent action were strong predictors of future terrorist activity. Surprisingly, the expression of hateful views and discussion of far-right ideology actually decreased the probability of a user mobilizing to action.
“Our research shows that we can identify people on social media who go on to commit extremist action by picking up on posts that are about acquiring know-how and developing capability to commit terrorism,” said Dr. Olivia Brown, Associate Professor in Digital Futures at the University of Bath School of Management and Deputy Director of the Bath Institute for Digital Security and Behaviour.
Prioritizing Monitoring Efforts and Future Applications
With the vast amount of extremist content online, identifying individuals most likely to cause harm is a significant challenge for security services. The researchers’ method aims to prioritize monitoring resources on a smaller pool of people who are more likely to engage in terrorist activity.
“We have pinpointed signals of risk to make the haystack smaller and the needle bigger, which can be used to prioritize monitoring resources on a smaller pool of people who we think are more likely to act,” Dr. Brown explained.
While ideological content remains a major concern, this technological tool can be used alongside existing resources to differentiate between individuals likely to engage in terrorist action and those who are not.
Dr. Brown is seeking funding to apply these methods to the January 6 Capitol Building riots in the USA and is collaborating with law enforcement to examine social media posts within online forums, focusing on group interactions and developing a tool to analyze risk within social networks.
Why it matters: As extremist content continues to proliferate online, identifying individuals who pose a genuine threat to public safety is a critical challenge for security services. This research provides a valuable tool to help prioritize monitoring efforts and potentially intervene before terrorist attacks occur. By understanding the online behaviors and risk signals associated with mobilization to violence, authorities can more effectively allocate resources and protect communities from harm. The insights gained from this study could also be applied to other contexts, such as the January 6 Capitol Building riots, to better understand the mechanisms of mobilization and prevent future acts of violence.
