A comprehensive 25-year study reveals that 32% of Chicago residents have carried a concealed handgun on city streets before reaching age 40, with stark differences between gender and racial demographics. The research suggests similar patterns may exist across major U.S. cities, highlighting significant implications for urban safety and gun policy.
The groundbreaking analysis tracked over 3,400 Chicago residents from 1994 to 2021, uncovering distinct patterns in gun-carrying behavior between adolescents and adults. The study found that men (48%) were three times more likely than women (16%) to carry concealed firearms by age 40, revealing a significant gender disparity in gun-carrying practices.
Key Takeaways:
- 32% of Chicago residents carry concealed firearms by age 40
- Two-thirds of recent gun carriers began in adulthood
- Direct exposure to gun violence strongly influences teenage carrying, but not adult behavior
Published in Science Advances | Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Different Paths to Gun Carrying
Dr. Charles Lanfear from the University of Cambridge, the study’s lead author, identifies two distinct pathways to gun carrying. Those who begin as teenagers often do so in response to direct exposure to gun violence. “Among adolescents, we found a strong association between either witnessing a shooting or being shot, and beginning to carry soon after,” notes Lanfear.
Adult carriers, who make up the majority, show different motivations. The research indicates their behavior may stem from general safety concerns rather than specific violent experiences. This group demonstrates more persistent carrying habits, with 85% continuing to carry in 2021, compared to just 37% of those who started as teenagers.
Racial disparities emerged in the findings, with Black residents carrying at twice the rate of Hispanic and White residents. However, this correlates with exposure to gun violence, as previous research showed Black residents were twice as likely to witness shootings by age 40.
The study’s timing captures significant social changes, including COVID-19’s impact and shifting gun legislation. Illinois moved to a “shall issue” policy in 2014, marking a substantial change in concealed carry laws. The researchers noted increased gun carrying during 2020-2021, coinciding with the pandemic and social unrest.
Study Limitations
While comprehensive, the study focuses solely on Chicago, potentially limiting its generalizability to other urban areas. Additionally, the research relies on self-reported data, which may be subject to recall bias or underreporting due to the sensitive nature of gun carrying.
Key Terms
- Concealed Carry
- The practice of carrying a firearm in public in a concealed manner, typically under clothing or in a bag, as permitted by state laws and licensing requirements.
- Shall Issue Policy
- A legal framework requiring authorities to issue concealed carry permits to all applicants who meet basic statutory criteria, without discretionary judgment.
- Longitudinal Study
- A research method that follows the same subjects over an extended period, allowing researchers to observe changes and patterns over time.
Test Your Knowledge
What percentage of Chicago residents have carried a concealed firearm by age 40?
According to the study, 32% of Chicago residents have carried a concealed firearm by age 40, with men (48%) carrying at significantly higher rates than women (16%).
How does exposure to gun violence affect carrying behavior differently between teenagers and adults?
Teenagers who witness shootings or experience gun violence are more likely to begin carrying soon after, while adult carrying behavior shows no significant correlation with direct exposure to gun violence.
What percentage of adult gun carriers continued carrying through 2021?
85% of those who began carrying as adults continued to carry in 2021, compared to only 37% of those who started as teenagers.
How did gun carrying patterns change during 2020-2021?
The study observed a sharp increase in adult gun carrying during this period, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest following George Floyd’s murder.
