Rising Homicide Rates Predict Future Suicide Risk in U.S. Counties

Communities shaken by rising homicide rates often face a second, quieter crisis the following year: an increase in suicide.

A major new study from Rutgers University, spanning more than 50 years of U.S. county data, finds a disturbing link between local violence and self-inflicted deaths, especially when firearms are involved. The research reveals that a spike in homicides, particularly gun-related ones, can predict a surge in suicides, most notably in rural areas and among white Americans. The findings suggest that the psychological shock of community violence lingers long after the crime tape is removed.

Homicide and Suicide: Two Sides of the Same Crisis

“Local violence doesn’t only harm the victims—it destabilizes entire communities in ways that increase the risk of suicide,” said Daniel Semenza, lead author and director of research at the New Jersey Gun Violence Research Center. “Violence prevention is suicide prevention.”

Published in Social Science & Medicine, the study analyzed more than 159,000 county-year observations from 1968 to 2019, using a rigorous quasi-experimental statistical model known as System GMM. This method allowed the researchers to isolate the effect of homicide rates on subsequent suicide rates, accounting for economic, demographic, and geographic variables.

Key findings include:

• A 1-point increase in a county’s homicide rate predicted a 3.6% rise in suicide rates the following year
• Firearm homicides were associated with a 5.7% increase in firearm suicides
• The strongest effects were seen in rural counties and among white populations
• Even in Black communities, where homicide rates are typically higher, increases were linked to modest rises in suicide

Firearms Amplify the Cycle

The study found that guns intensify the relationship between homicide and suicide. Because firearms are highly lethal, their availability increases the likelihood that suicidal thoughts become fatal actions. This finding echoes earlier research suggesting that access to firearms increases suicide capability, especially in those exposed to community trauma.

“The connection was particularly strong for firearm-related deaths,” the authors wrote, “indicating that community-level firearm violence may have uniquely salient effects on population mental health.”

Race, Geography, and a Fractured Safety Net

While both white and Black communities were affected, the data revealed stark differences. A one-point increase in the white homicide rate predicted a 4.0% increase in white suicide the following year, and a 7.3% increase in firearm suicides. In contrast, the same homicide rise among Black populations led to increases of less than 1% in total and firearm suicides.

Why the disparity? Researchers suggest that in predominantly white communities, homicide may signal an unexpected breakdown in social order, triggering despair. Meanwhile, Black communities—already facing higher exposure to structural adversity—may have developed collective adaptations to chronic violence. Protective factors like higher religious engagement could also play a role in mitigating suicide risk.

Rural counties bear the greatest burden

The rural effect stood out: homicide-suicide spillover was weakest in urban counties and strongest in rural ones. Suicide risk rose by 5% in rural areas following a rise in homicide, compared to just 2.4% in urban settings. Sparse mental health resources, cultural barriers to help-seeking, and tight-knit communities where trauma can ripple quickly may all contribute to this pattern.

Reframing Suicide Prevention

This study challenges the long-standing public health divide between homicide and suicide. It argues that these outcomes are not isolated, but instead arise from shared social and structural conditions—poverty, marginalization, exposure to violence, and easy access to firearms. Addressing one requires addressing the other.

“Interpersonal and self-directed violence are interconnected and should be treated as such,” Semenza said.

Looking ahead, the authors call for suicide prevention strategies that extend beyond individual interventions. Community-wide efforts to reduce violence, especially firearm violence, may also reduce suicide. That includes investing in mental health care, promoting social cohesion, and tackling inequality—particularly in rural America.

Journal: Social Science & Medicine
DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118406