Clean Energy Transition Could Boost National Security For Most Countries

Shifting away from fossil fuels could make most nations more secure and less vulnerable to energy trade disruptions, according to groundbreaking research published April 9 in Nature Climate Change.

The Stanford University study reveals that approximately 70% of countries would experience reduced energy security risks by transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2060, challenging common assumptions about the geopolitical impacts of clean energy adoption.

“Most people are focused on the new stuff that could be a problem, and not really considering the security benefits of moving away from fossil fuels,” said Steve Davis, the study’s senior author and a professor of Earth system science in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. “For most countries in a net-zero emissions system in the future, trading off the reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels and increased dependence on these new materials is actually a win for energy security.”

While critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt have become the new prizes in the global energy race, the research indicates that dependence on these materials typically poses fewer trade risks than continued reliance on imported oil, gas, and coal.

Even the United States, which possesses substantial fossil fuel reserves but limited critical mineral deposits, stands to gain energy security through decarbonization — particularly if it develops diverse trade relationships for these resources.

Since 2020, America has been a net exporter of petroleum products, yet it still imports millions of barrels daily from countries including Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. “Generating electricity with solar and wind will require more imports than using abundant gas and coal resources in the U.S., but reduced dependence on foreign oil will be a big advantage as transportation is electrified,” Davis explained.

The research team, led by postdoctoral scholar Jing Cheng, evaluated 1,092 different pathways to achieve net-zero emissions globally by 2060. They created a comprehensive database tracking resource reserves and trade flows across 236 countries, then assessed the security implications of each scenario.

Their analysis utilized a new “trade risk index” based on domestic resource availability, import dependency, economic value, and market concentration factors. With this methodology, they determined that if countries maintain current trade networks, energy security risks would decline by an average of 19% in net-zero scenarios. If nations expand their trading relationships, risks could drop by half.

Recycling offers another powerful strategy for reducing vulnerability. The study found that quadrupling current recycling rates for critical minerals would decrease trade risks by an average of 17% globally — and by more than 50% for the United States.

For America specifically, the researchers identified an optimal energy mix that would minimize trade risks: approximately 70-75% renewables, 15-20% fossil fuels, and 10% nuclear. This represents a significant shift from today’s energy landscape, where fossil fuels provide about 83% of U.S. energy needs.

Interestingly, wind power currently offers greater security benefits than solar for the United States, given existing trade relationships. “However, advancing solar photovoltaic manufacturing technologies with more widely available, lower-grade silicon sources, or expanding trade networks with countries rich in silicon and manganese reserves, could further significantly bolster the nation’s energy security,” Cheng noted.

The findings have important implications for global energy policy, suggesting that the transition to clean energy could simultaneously address climate goals and strengthen national security for most countries.

Not all nations stand to benefit equally, however. The research identifies oil-rich countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia among the minority that would likely experience declining energy security in net-zero scenarios, even with expanded trade networks.

Diversification emerges as a central theme for mitigating risks. “If you’re importing a large fraction of what you need, that’s a vulnerability. If it’s all from a single other party, there’s a lot of risk that some natural disaster or geopolitical conflict could disrupt that supply,” Davis said. “You want to diversify imports among as many sources as you can.”

Yet the researchers emphasize that diversification alone isn’t sufficient — reducing fossil fuel dependence remains crucial for enhancing energy security. “It is ultimately encouraging that most countries’ trade risks decrease in net-zero scenarios,” the authors conclude, “and that the greatest improvements often occur in the countries which most drastically reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.”

As nations develop climate policies and energy transition plans, this research suggests they might not need to choose between environmental goals and energy security. For most countries, these objectives appear increasingly aligned, offering a compelling case for accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels.

The international study involved collaborators from multiple institutions including Stanford University, Tsinghua University, Beijing Normal University, and Peking University.