Asteroid Has 4% Chance of Hitting Moon in 2032

A 60-meter asteroid discovered late last year has astronomers on edge—not because it threatens Earth, but because it might crash into the Moon.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which briefly sparked global concern when its Earth impact probability reached 3%, has been ruled out as a threat to our planet. However, new calculations show a 4% chance the space rock will strike the Moon on December 22, 2032, creating a spectacle visible from Earth and potentially throwing debris into space.

The asteroid’s story illustrates both the challenges and blind spots in current planetary defense systems, while offering a preview of what could become humanity’s first predicted lunar impact.

From Earth Threat to Lunar Target

Discovered on December 27, 2024, by Chile’s ATLAS telescope system, 2024 YR4 initially triggered automated warning systems when calculations suggested a small chance of Earth impact. The asteroid, measuring 53-67 meters across, would cause severe regional damage if it struck our planet—an event that occurs roughly once every few thousand years for objects this size.

Follow-up observations using ground-based telescopes and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope allowed astronomers to refine the asteroid’s orbital path. By March 2025, they had enough data to confidently rule out an Earth collision. But the precision that eliminated Earth impact revealed another possibility: a lunar strike.

“We are left with an interesting situation: there is now a 60 m asteroid with a 4% chance of hitting the Moon in 2032,” noted Richard Moissl, Head of ESA’s Planetary Defence Office.

A Blind Spot in Space

The asteroid’s late discovery highlights a critical weakness in current detection systems. 2024 YR4 approached Earth from the day side of our planet—a region hidden by the Sun’s glare that ground-based optical telescopes cannot observe.

This solar blind spot isn’t theoretical. On February 15, 2013, the Chelyabinsk meteor struck Earth’s atmosphere over Russia during daylight hours, completely undetected until impact. The resulting blast damaged thousands of buildings and injured roughly 1,500 people from flying glass.

Key challenges facing asteroid detection:

• Ground-based telescopes cannot observe the Sun-facing sky region
• Most dangerous asteroids approach from this hidden zone
• Late detection limits time for detailed orbital analysis
• Current systems rely primarily on visible light observations

ESA’s planned NEOMIR space telescope, scheduled for launch in the early 2030s, will address this gap by positioning an infrared detector at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point. Computer simulations suggest NEOMIR would have spotted 2024 YR4 a full month earlier, providing crucial additional observation time.

Waiting for 2028

The current 4% lunar impact probability represents an unusual situation in asteroid tracking. The space rock has now moved too far from Earth for further observation, leaving astronomers in limbo until June 2028, when it returns to telescopic range.

At that point, new measurements will quickly resolve the uncertainty. The 96% probability suggests the asteroid will miss the Moon entirely, but the 4% chance creates an intriguing possibility for lunar science.

“A lunar impact remains unlikely, and no one knows what the exact effects would be,” Moissl observed. “It is a very rare event for an asteroid this large to impact the Moon—and it is rarer still that we know about it in advance.”

Implications for Lunar Exploration

Should the impact occur, it would likely create a visible crater and potentially eject material into space, though scientists cannot predict how much debris might reach Earth. The event would offer researchers an unprecedented opportunity to study lunar impact dynamics in real-time.

The scenario also underscores growing concerns about lunar safety as space agencies plan permanent Moon bases. Unlike Earth, the Moon lacks an atmosphere to burn up incoming objects, meaning even small meteoroids pose serious threats to astronauts and infrastructure.

For now, the world waits. In 2028, returning observations will either confirm a safe lunar flyby or set the stage for humanity’s first predicted cosmic collision—a celestial show scheduled for December 22, 2032, that would mark both the end of one space rock’s journey and the beginning of new insights into planetary defense.