Scientists have developed a powerful new forecasting system that can predict where and when desert locust swarms will strike, potentially saving millions from food insecurity in Africa and Asia. The tool combines weather data with advanced computational models to track these devastating agricultural pests.
Published in PLOS Computational Biology | Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Desert locusts can unleash unimaginable destruction on food supplies – a single square kilometer of swarming locusts can consume enough food in one day to feed 35,000 people. Now, researchers at the University of Cambridge have created a comprehensive system to predict and control these devastating swarms before they can decimate crops.
“The response to the last locust upsurge was very ad-hoc, and less efficient than it could have been. We’ve created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest,” says Dr. Renata Retkute of the University of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences and first author of the study.
The tool harnesses weather forecast data from the UK Met Office and advanced computational modeling of insect movement through the air to forecast where swarms will travel as they search for new feeding grounds. This allows authorities to identify areas at risk and take preventive action by applying pesticides before the locusts arrive.
According to Professor Chris Gilligan, senior author from Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, rapid response is critical: “The important thing is to respond quickly if there’s likely to be a big locust upsurge, before it causes a major crop loss. Huge swarms can lead to really desperate situations where people could starve.”
The timing of this development is particularly crucial as climate change is expected to increase the frequency of locust swarms. Environmental triggers like cyclones and intense rainfall create conditions that allow desert plants to thrive, providing food that enables locusts to breed explosively. The research team emphasized that countries which haven’t faced locust swarms in many years are often unprepared, lacking the necessary surveillance teams, aircraft, and pesticides.
Glossary
- Desert Locust: A species of migratory pest that typically lives alone until environmental conditions trigger them to swarm in massive numbers
- Computational Modeling: Using computer simulations to predict complex behaviors and patterns, in this case locust movement and breeding
- Preventive Control: Taking action to stop pest outbreaks before they reach crisis levels by identifying and treating areas at risk
Test Your Knowledge
How much food can a one-square-kilometer locust swarm consume in a day?
A swarm covering one square kilometer can consume enough food in one day to feed 35,000 people.
What kind of data does the new tool use to predict locust movements?
The tool uses weather forecast data from the UK Met Office and computational models of insect movement through the air.
How does climate change affect locust swarms?
Climate change is expected to increase locust swarm frequency by causing more trigger events like cyclones and intense rainfall that create conditions for locusts to breed.
Why are some countries particularly vulnerable to locust swarms?
Countries that haven’t experienced locust swarms for many years often lack preparedness in terms of surveillance teams, aircraft, and pesticides needed for control measures.