A study led by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway has found that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, while essential for climate mitigation, is not developing rapidly enough to meet critical climate targets. The research, published in Nature Climate Change, suggests that without substantial acceleration, CCS deployment will fall short of the requirements outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement.
Summary: New research reveals that even with major efforts, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is unlikely to expand fast enough to meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s 1.5°C target, and significant challenges remain for the 2°C goal.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
The Gap Between Current CCS Capacity and Climate Goals
CCS technology, which involves capturing carbon dioxide emissions and storing them underground, is widely regarded as a crucial tool in the fight against climate change. However, the study reveals a significant disparity between the current state of CCS deployment and what’s needed to achieve climate goals.
Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor at Chalmers University of Technology, emphasizes the urgency of the situation: “CCS is an important technology for achieving negative emissions and also essential for reducing carbon emissions from some of the most carbon-intensive industries. Yet our results show that major efforts are needed to bridge the gap between the demonstration projects in place today and the massive deployment we need to mitigate climate change.”
The research team’s analysis projects that over the 21st century, no more than 600 Gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide can be sequestered with CCS. This figure falls far short of the requirements outlined in many climate mitigation pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which in some scenarios call for upwards of 1000 Gt of CO2 to be captured and stored by century’s end.
Challenges in Scaling Up CCS Technology
The study highlights several obstacles to the rapid expansion of CCS:
- High failure rates of planned projects
- The need for strong policy support
- The challenge of matching the growth rates of other low-carbon technologies
Tsimafei Kazlou, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Bergen and lead author of the study, points out a concerning trend: “About 15 years ago, during another wave of interest in CCS, planned projects failed at a rate of almost 90 percent. If historic failure rates continue, capacity in 2030 will be at most twice what it is today which would be insufficient for climate targets.”
To meet the 2°C target, CCS would need to grow as rapidly as wind power did in the early 2000s over the next decade. Following that, starting in the 2040s, it would need to match the peak growth that nuclear energy experienced in the 1970s and 1980s.
Implications for Climate Policy and Technology Development
The findings of this study have significant implications for climate policy and the development of low-carbon technologies:
- Strong policy support is crucial for making CCS projects financially viable.
- Other low-carbon technologies like solar and wind power need to expand even faster to compensate for the limitations of CCS.
- The 1.5°C target appears to be out of reach even with optimistic CCS deployment scenarios.
Aleh Cherp, Professor at Central European University in Austria, underscores the need for a multi-faceted approach: “Rapid deployment of CCS needs strong support schemes to make CCS projects financially viable. At the same time, our results show that since we can only count on CCS to deliver 600 Gt of CO2 captured and stored over the 21st century, other low-carbon technologies like solar and wind power need to expand even faster.”
Questions and Concerns
This research raises several important questions and concerns:
- How can we accelerate the development and deployment of CCS technology?
- What alternative strategies should be pursued given the limitations of CCS?
- How will these findings impact current climate policies and international agreements?
As the world grapples with the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions, this study serves as a stark reminder of the challenges ahead. It emphasizes the need for a diverse portfolio of climate mitigation strategies and the importance of realistic planning based on technological capabilities and growth rates.
Quiz
- What is the maximum amount of CO2 the study projects can be sequestered with CCS over the 21st century?
- What was the failure rate of planned CCS projects about 15 years ago?
- To meet the 2°C target, CCS needs to grow as fast as which technology did in the early 2000s?
Answer Key:
- 600 Gigatons (Gt)
- Almost 90 percent
- Wind power
Further Reading:
- IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/carbon-dioxide-capture-and-storage/
- Global Status of CCS 2023 Report: https://status23.globalccsinstitute.com/
- Paris Climate Agreement: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement
Glossary of Terms:
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): A technology that captures CO2 emissions from sources like power plants and stores it underground to prevent its release into the atmosphere.
- Gigaton (Gt): A unit of mass equal to one billion metric tons, often used to measure large-scale carbon emissions or sequestration.
- Paris Climate Agreement: An international treaty adopted in 2015 aimed at limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
- IPCC: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN body for assessing the science related to climate change.
- Negative Emissions: Removing more CO2 from the atmosphere than is emitted, often through technologies like BECCS or DACCS.
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