Some worries announce themselves in numbers, others in the way people talk. A new study from the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University and Public Agenda suggests both are happening at once, revealing a country uneasy about its democratic future and unsure how to talk about it without retreating into familiar camps.
The researchers did not go hunting for crisis. It surfaced anyway. Their national survey of 4,500 Americans shows that 84 percent believe democracy is either in crisis or facing serious challenges. Only 11 percent think it is doing well. That should be enough to stop anyone mid sentence, yet it lands alongside something more complicated. Concern does not follow one track. It bends through identity, media habits, and the fault lines inside the Republican Party.
Take one moment from the focus groups. A Republican voter, frustrated by years of political arguments with friends, described feeling like it had become impossible to even start a conversation. The details were personal and unscripted, the kind that rarely make it into charts, but they fit the study’s broader finding that people on both sides are withdrawing from cross party interactions. Page 15 of the report shows more than half of Democrats and Republicans avoided political talks with someone who disagreed with them in the last six months.
Three Republican Groups, Three Different Maps
The headline finding inside the party is not unity but segmentation. Trump first Republicans, about 29 percent, want a forceful presidency and are open to bypassing Congress to achieve it. Constitution first Republicans, 34 percent, insist that limits and legislative roles matter, even if they voted for Donald Trump. Party first Republicans, 36 percent, show a steady uncertainty about constitutional authority and rarely talk politics with anyone. These divisions appear everywhere in the data, including the stark split on whether the president should be able to ignore court rulings. The charts on page 7 make that divide almost visual.
“Americans share deep concern for our democracy, but we do not all have the same reasons,” said Andrew Seligsohn, president of Public Agenda.
Trust in federal elections is precarious across the board. One third of Americans say national elections are not free and fair, though confidence rises for local contests. Belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election fractures even more sharply. Ninety six percent of Democrats say Joe Biden won legitimately, compared with just 18 percent of Republicans. Constitution first Republicans are more confident than their fellow partisans, but the gap remains enormous.
Where People Turn For News
There is a moment in the report that stays with you longer than most. In a discussion about media, one Constitution first participant explained why they stopped trusting quick infographics on social platforms. They preferred newspapers because those posts, in their words, left out the details. Their frustration mirrors the larger breakdown. Americans rely on the same types of media but not the same sources. Forty six percent get news online, 42 percent on traditional television, 36 percent through cable networks. But the specific outlets diverge sharply. The table on page 18 shows Democrats leaning on CNN, MSNBC, and the New York Times, while Republicans cluster heavily around Fox News and Newsmax. Independents drift toward online sources, often without naming a single trusted anchor.
These media patterns are not just habits. They shape how people interpret rules and power. They influence which civic norms feel threatened and which seem flexible. And they help explain why some Republicans want a strong president only when it is their president, while others insist the system should not shift with personalities. The report puts it plainly through one of its authors.
“Understanding these cleavages, rather than seeing Republicans as a monolithic group, is important for the future of a functioning, pluralistic democracy,” said Scott Warren, a fellow at the SNF Agora Institute.
Nothing in the study suggests these divides are temporary. They are rooted in how people talk, where they listen, and what they consider credible. Some of the most revealing material sits in the comments about COVID 19, where several Trump first participants said the pandemic response damaged their trust in government permanently. Those remarks appear on page 9, framed not as single grievances but as turning points.
The researchers avoid prescribing solutions, but the story they present is clear enough. Americans sense that democracy feels fragile. They disagree on why, and on what should happen next, but the shared apprehension is real. It shows up in the data, in the focus group rooms, and in the uneasy pauses that now shape political conversations. Sometimes an article ends with a solution. This one ends with a fact: only 11 percent of Americans think their democracy is doing well. The rest are trying to map the distance between concern and collapse.
Source: “Understanding Evolving Republican Attitudes Towards Democracy” (2025), SNF Agora Institute and Public Agenda.
PDF: https://snfagora.jhu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Understanding-Evolving-Republican-Attitudes-Towards-Democracy.pdf
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