A new analysis by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine suggests that deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza between October 2023 and June 2024 were about 41% higher than officially reported, according to findings published in The Lancet.
Using multiple data sources and statistical methods, researchers estimated approximately 64,260 deaths during this period, compared to the 37,877 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health. The study indicates that about 3% of Gaza’s population died due to violence during this timeframe.
“The UN’s Human Rights Office has already condemned the high number of civilians killed in the war in Gaza, and our findings suggest that the traumatic injury death toll is underreported by around 41%,” explains lead author Zeina Jamaluddine of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Research Methods and Findings
The researchers used a statistical method called “capture-recapture analysis” to estimate deaths by combining data from multiple sources: Palestinian Ministry of Health hospital morgue records, a respondent-driven online survey, and social media obituaries.
The analysis revealed that women, children under 18, and elderly individuals accounted for 59% of the deaths where age and sex data were available. The study found mortality rates were particularly high, with an annualized rate of deaths from traumatic injury reaching 39.3 per 1,000 people.
The researchers note that their estimates likely understate the full impact, as they don’t include deaths from other causes such as healthcare disruption, food insecurity, inadequate water and sanitation, and disease outbreaks.
Data Collection Challenges
The study highlights how the ability to count casualties deteriorated over time as healthcare infrastructure was damaged. The research team’s methodology aimed to account for this deterioration by combining multiple data sources to arrive at more complete estimates.
Based on the estimated underreporting rate found in the study through June 2024, researchers suggest the total traumatic injury death toll as of October 2024 likely exceeds 70,000.
The research was published in The Lancet.