The future of European hailstorms looks less frequent but far more destructive, according to new climate modeling that challenges earlier predictions about how global warming will reshape one of nature’s costliest local hazards.
Researchers from Newcastle University, the Met Office, and the University of Bristol ran high-resolution simulations across Europe and discovered something counterintuitive: while severe hailstorms may become less common overall, the ones that do form could pack considerably more punch. The shift centers on a emerging class of “warm-type” thunderstorms, similar to tropical systems, that can hurl massive chunks of ice earthward despite forming in atmospheres once considered too warm for serious hail.
The study, published in Nature Communications, used cutting-edge climate models with 2.2-kilometer grid spacing to examine hail formation under a high-emissions scenario. Unlike coarser models that predicted more hailstorms across the board, this finer-grained approach captured storm-scale processes that paint a more nuanced picture.
When Bigger Means Worse
Severe hail starts at 2 centimeters in diameter. Very large hail measures 5 centimeters or more. That size difference matters enormously for damage potential, and the research suggests climate change may be pushing the distribution toward those larger, more devastating stones.
“Our findings indicate that the effects of climate change on severe thunderstorms are more complex than previously thought, and high-resolution models can produce results that differ significantly from earlier research. Society may need to prepare for less frequent, yet more damaging hail events locally, in a 5-degree warmer future.”
Dr. Abdullah Kahraman, the study’s lead author and a senior researcher in severe weather at Newcastle University, points to several competing factors. As the atmosphere warms, hail forms higher up where storm updrafts can be weaker. That gives the ice more time to melt before hitting the ground. Meanwhile, weakening large-scale circulation affects wind profiles in ways that discourage the organization of severe thunderstorms.
But here is where the tropical connection becomes critical. The research identified a second class of thunderstorms emerging in future climate projections, ones with freezing levels above 4.5 kilometers. These warm-type systems, common in places like India and West Africa today, can still deliver enormous hailstones to the surface because the largest ice chunks fall fast enough to survive the extended melt zone.
Southern Europe Faces New Risks
The modeling shows these warm thunderstorms will concentrate over southern Europe, particularly Italy and the Mediterranean coast, during autumn and winter months. The simulations found no such extreme atmospheric instability in present-day Europe, but the future climate produced episodes lasting more than a week at a time.
Regional patterns vary considerably. Central Europe may see overall decreases in severe hail potential. Northern areas, including the British Isles, should remain relatively low-risk. But southern regions face a different calculation. The ratio of significant severe hail to regular severe hail doubles in Southern Europe according to the projections, suggesting a fundamental shift in the size distribution of what falls from the sky.
“These results are very concerning. They imply we need to be prepared for tropical-type hailstorms impacting Europe in the future, associated with very large hailstones that can cause severe impacts. This possibility also extends to the UK, although the risk of hail here remains low into the future.”
Professor Lizzie Kendon, who heads climate projections at the UK Met Office, emphasizes the preparedness challenge. Recent hailstorms have already caused significant damage to properties, infrastructure, crops, and aircraft. Larger stones mean exponentially greater impact.
The study compared two future timeframes under the same high-emissions pathway. Mid-century projections (2040s) showed decreases in severe hail potential, but end-of-century modeling (around 2100) revealed even sharper declines in frequency alongside those increases in potential severity. The progression suggests these competing mechanisms evolve differently as warming accelerates.
One limitation: the research examined only one emissions scenario and one climate model realization. The team acknowledges that multiple model runs would better quantify uncertainty, particularly given how sensitive severe convective storms are to large-scale circulation patterns. They also note their hail proxy likely underestimates cases because the model stores data at three-hour intervals, potentially missing storms that form between snapshots.
Still, the findings mark a departure from earlier European hail projections that relied on coarser models and environmental proxies rather than simulated storm dynamics. Those studies typically predicted increases in hail frequency driven by rising atmospheric instability. This new work suggests the devil lives in details like updraft strength in the hail growth zone and the precise altitude where freezing occurs, factors that standard instability metrics may miss entirely.
The implication for Mediterranean communities: less frequent hail overall, but when it comes, expect something closer to what tropical regions experience today. That is not necessarily good news.
Nature Communications: 10.1038/s41467-025-55770-4
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